GREENSBORO, N.C. – For the first time since 2010, Georgia Tech fans will have a reason other than general interest, boredom or schadenfreude to watch the unveiling of the NCAA Tournament bracket on Selection Sunday.
With a record of 16-8 and a NET ranking of 38 ahead of their ACC Tournament championship final against Florida State on Saturday night, the Yellow Jackets have done enough in the eyes of bracket experts to make the field of 68 for the first time since 2010.
It will be a moment perhaps of incredulity for the Jackets faithful, who for a decade have had to watch the annual basketball festival with no clear rooting interest. It will be a precious reward for seniors Moses Wright, Jose Alvarado, Jordan Usher, Bubba Parham and walk-ons Shaheed Medlock and Malachi Rice, who have labored with no certainty that their dreams would be fulfilled.
When the Jackets defeated Wake Forest on March 5 to (in the eyes of coach Josh Pastner) clinch their tournament spot, Wright admitted that, “Honestly, I never thought I’d get into the NCAA Tournament.”
“As a kid, you dream about this accomplishment that we’ve succeeded with,” guard Michael Devoe said after the same game.
So where could Pastner’s team be slotted Sunday when the selection show begins at 6 p.m.? The consensus is that Tech will be a 10th seed.
In brackets all updated Saturday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm and Dave Ommen of Bracketville, among many others, had Tech pegged as a 10-seed before the ACC title game.
In a text message Saturday, Palm said that a win over Florida State could move the Jackets up into an 8- or 9-seed, but that a loss to the Seminoles (24th in NET) might not impact them in seeding.
The entire tournament is scheduled to be played in Indianapolis and the surrounding area. Pastner said that his team was to fly there Sunday or Monday.
Palm, Lunardi and Ommen had the same seven ACC teams in the field. By seed according to Lunardi, it’s Florida State and Virginia (4), North Carolina (7), Clemson and Virginia Tech (9), Georgia Tech (10) and Louisville and Syracuse (11).
Virginia’s participation is up in the air after the Cavaliers withdrew from the ACC Tournament following a positive COVID-19 test. The school was exploring options for the team to keep playing.
The strength of Tech’s résumé are its road win at Virginia Tech, home wins over Clemson, North Carolina and Syracuse and its respectable 4-5 road record. A win over Florida State on Saturday night would jump to the head of the list.
Its weak points are its relatively weak non-conference schedule, ranked 228th in Division I and 11th in the ACC by KenPom as of Saturday, and the fact that the Jackets lost two of those non-conference games at home, to Georgia State and Mercer. Tech had some bad luck in that its neutral-site win over Kentucky, which was historically bad at 9-16, likely didn’t count for much, and its scheduled road game at UAB (20-7) was canceled for COVID-19 reasons on UAB’s part.
As a 10-seed, that would put the Jackets up against a seventh seed. Lunardi’s four seventh-seeded teams as of early Saturday were LSU, North Carolina, Oregon and San Diego State. Palm’s were Missouri, Oregon, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech. Ommen slotted Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Wisconsin as his seventh-seeded teams. (As a principle, the selection committee does not pit conference members against each other in the first round.)
Inasmuch as Tech was 2-0 in that group of potential seventh seeds (North Carolina and Virginia Tech) and considering the strong guard play and senior-dominated lineup so common in tournament survivors, it wouldn’t be a stretch to cast the Jackets as a potential bracket disruptor.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 10 seeds are 55-85 in the first round against No. 7 seeds, a 39.3% winning percentage.
For the purposes of making into the Sweet 16, being a No. 10 seed is far more advantageous than being a No. 9, as the winners of the 8-9 game have in all but one instance played the No. 1 seed in the second round while the 7-10 winner generally plays the No. 2 seed.
According to the sports gambling website BetFirm, No. 10 seeds that won their first game were 23-32 in the second round (41.8%). Remarkably, 10th-seeded teams have actually fared better in the second round than No. 7 seeds (27-58, 31.8%).
For 8-seeds and 9-seeds (first-round games are essentially tossups), the second round is a much tougher road. They are a combined 20-120 (14.3%) in the second round.
For any Tech fans who feel like dreaming, there has been one No. 10 seed that has advanced to the Final Four – Syracuse in 2016. Among the more famed No. 10 seeds in tournament history was the 2002 Kent State team that reached the Elite Eight. A backup forward on that team was Anthony Wilkins, in his third year as an assistant coach on Pastner’s staff.
Wherever the Jackets end up, it undoubtedly will be a sweet moment for all invested in the team. Tech’s 11-year wait is the fourth longest among all power-conference teams, exceeded only by Rutgers (1991), Washington State (2008) and Boston College (2009). With a record of 15-11, Rutgers also is expected to end its absence with a bid Sunday.
About the Author
