Neither has had the season it wanted. Georgia has gone from No. 5 in the preseason Associated Press poll to unranked and, for the first time in three years, cannot win the SEC East. Georgia Tech hasn’t managed a victory of consequence — unless you count Duke, which didn’t seem consequential at the time — and was, owing to Miami’s victory over Pitt, eliminated Friday from a return trip to the ACC Championship game.
Each is 7-4. Each finished 5-3 in conference play. Each lost at Clemson — Georgia by a little, Tech by a lot. But one side still can affix a smiley face to a so-so season. Tech is that side.
Before being swept away on the wind of intangibles, we note that the Yellow Jackets are invariably the team with more to prove. Since Vince Dooley arrived in 1964, Georgia has won 37 of 49 meetings, or slightly better than three of every four. Since Mark Richt took charge in 2001, the domination has reached greater heights. (Or depths, depending on your loyalties.) Under Richt, the Bulldogs have beaten Tech 11 times in 12.
If motivation bordering on embarrassment were enough to sway football games, this rivalry wouldn’t have lost its oomph. But wanting to win doesn’t always mean winning. Georgia has come to rule this series because the Bulldogs have the better players. Only the very good Tech teams stand a chance anymore. Just one of the Jackets’ past seven victories over Georgia came when they entered with a lesser record, and the one was in 2008, when Tech was 8-3 to the Bulldogs’ 9-2.
If you’re a Tech fan seeking encouragement, the 2008 game is the place to start. Ranked No. 1 in preseason, Georgia saw high hopes dashed in crushing losses to Alabama and Florida. Under new coach Paul Johnson, Tech beat Florida State and Miami and was, by season’s end, getting the hang of his offense. Still, the talent differential — Georgia had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno and A.J. Green — appeared substantial. On that rainy day, it wasn’t. Down 28-12 at halftime, Tech outscored the Bulldogs 23-0 in seven astonishing minutes and won 45-42.
Yes, that Tech team was better than this one. But these Bulldogs haven’t been at full strength since September and will play behind a quarterback making his first collegiate start. Richt has said that Hutson Mason has “been ready for two years,” but looking good in limited practice reps isn’t the same as facing an energized opponent on the road. (Not that home field means much. Tech has beaten Georgia only once at Bobby Dodd Stadium since 1989.)
For the first time under Johnson, Tech has a better-ranked defense than Georgia. A case can be made that the Jackets mightn’t be as stout as their rating suggests, that the Bulldogs’ offense is closer to Miami’s and Clemson’s — which gained an aggregate 1,102 yards and scored 100 points against Tech — than to Elon’s or Alabama A&M’s. But Georgia’s offense, which lost Malcolm Mitchell in August and Keith Marshall and Justin Scott-Wesley in October and is now without Aaron Murray, isn’t apt to gain 500 yards or score 40 points.
The catch is that this is the lowest-ranked Tech offense since 2008. This game will pit a tepid Tech offense (47th nationally in yardage) against a tepid Georgia defense (42nd) and a good Tech ‘D’ (17th) against a good Georgia ‘O’ (15th). There’s a chance Johnson will outflank Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, whose reputation has been on the wane since 2011. There seems a greater chance that the Bulldogs will win more one-on-one battles than the Jackets, and that’ll be your ballgame.
Eleven victories in 12 seasons are more than an indication. They’re proof. Six of those 11 Georgia victories have come by double figures, the past two included. With the Bulldogs in a weakened state, this figures to be Tech’s best chance since 2009 and probably in the foreseeable future, but Georgia will still have the best player on the field (Todd Gurley) and maybe 18 of the best 22.
The dynamics favor Tech: a desperate team against a battered one; a not-bad defense against a backup quarterback … heck, even the law of averages. The personnel, as ever, favors Georgia. And say this for Richt: Even in years when his Bulldogs could have been eyeing the SEC Championship game — could have had bigger fish to fry, to invoke Johnson’s immortal phrase — he has had them primed for Tech.
This game offers a real opportunity for the Jackets, but not all opportunities get seized. Georgia 24, Tech 20.
