Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports reported Sunday that Falcons owner Arthur Blank is apt to fire Mike Smith and will seek to replace him with “a big-name head coach.” This wouldn’t clash with my reading of the climate in Flowery Branch — when your employer says of a game just lost, “There’s no way you lose that game,” it wouldn’t seem an endorsement — and that reading goes something like this.
1. Is Smith a goner? Barring a 6-2 finish that yields a playoff berth, yes, and I'm not sure 8-8 and a Round 1 loss would automatically mean he stays. Blank has been shocked by the ineptitude of this team, and that post-Wembley appraisal was as close as he has ever come to blaming the coach. For five years, Smith was the best coach the Falcons have ever had; over the past 24 games, his team is 6-18. Facts are stubborn things.
2. Is general manager Thomas Dimitroff safe? Other than Blank himself, the only man in this front office sure to have the same job next season is president Rich McKay, who proved post-Vick/post-Petrino that he can survive anything. My thought is that the fault for 6-18 should be split 50/50 between coaching (meaning Smith and his assistants) and personnel (meaning Dimitroff), but Blank apparently has (or had) a higher opinion of this team's talent. That could mean that TD the GM gets another chance. Me, I don't like half-measures. I'd keep both or neither.
3. Why is hiring "a big name" a big deal? Because Blank, as of 2017, will have a new stadium to fill, and before then he'll have Personal Seat Licenses to sell. The Falcons keep delaying the announcement of how much those PSL's will cost — they keep hoping to tie it to glad on-field tidings, of which there have lately been few — but they can't hold off forever. Hiring a big-name coach might help ease the sticker shock. (Which the Falcons know will be considerable. No Atlanta team has ever sold PSL's.)
4. So what "big name" might fit Blank's bill? Jon Gruden invariably tops such lists, but he won't top this one. He shoved McKay aside in Tampa Bay, and McKay is both Blank's closest confidante and best friend. Bill Cowher might be a possibility, though he hasn't coached since 2006. So might Tony Dungy, who hasn't since 2008. Everyone in the NFL expects the 49ers to part ways with Jim Harbaugh, who has led San Francisco to three consecutive NFC title games, after the season, but here we ask: If Harbaugh can't get along in San Fran, would he be a better fit here? (Blank wants his employees to work in harmony. It's one of the reasons the old-school Dan Reeves didn't last.)
5. Would Blank make a run at a college coach? He hired Bobby Petrino from Louisville, though that's not a happy memory. I'm sure Nick Saban would get the usual feelers and wind up staying in Tuscaloosa. (Saban has all the money he could ever want and a better job than this.) The Falcons nosed around Bob Stoops when they wound up hiring Jim Mora, and the feeling they got was that Stoops wasn't ready to leave Oklahoma then but might be someday. I'd expect that conversation to be revisited. Any NFL team worth its salt must take soundings regarding Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin, whose offenses are always great — fill those seats! — and who's hugely respected in the industry.
6. What about hiring an NFL coordinator? That's what the Falcons did with Smith, who'd been Jacksonville's defensive coordinator, and for five years it worked. But the dynamics are different: Smith was hired to calm the waters roiled by Vick/Petrino. If the Falcons embark on a coaching search this winter, it will be with the new stadium uppermost in mind. I'm not sure Vic Fangio (DC, San Fran) or Todd Bowles (DC, Arizona) or Dan Quinn (DC, Seattle) would move the masses. Maybe Adam Gase (OC, Denver) would.
7. What about Rex Ryan? Four NFL teams have worse records than the Falcons. Ryan's Jets are one of them. No chance.
8. If you had to pick one name against the field, who would it be? Sumlin. But I thought Lovie Smith was a lock when the Falcons hired Mora. I'm not great at this.
