We've been here before. Football Outsiders assesses the 4-2 Falcons' chance to make the playoffs at 83.1 percent. A year ago, ESPN's Football Power Index handed the Falcons a 91 percent chance of qualifying for postseason when they reached 4-0. Moral of our story: If you stop winning, your odds can plunge to a big fat zero really fast.
The 2015 Falcons essentially stopped winning, losing six in a row to fall from 6-1 to 6-7. If the 2016 edition can finish 6-4, it will play beyond New Year’s Day. As it happens, Football Outsiders projects the Falcons’ “mean win” total at 10. Ten wins would surely be enough to take the division — no other NFC South team is projected to go even 9-7 — and that’s another reason this year might not be like last year.
As the 2015 Falcons rose to 5-0, Carolina remained in unbeaten lockstep. Given the difference in schedules — the Panthers had to face Seattle and Green Bay; the Falcons did not — it was possible to see Carolina stumbling first. As it happened, the Panthers’ first loss came in the Georgia Dome on Dec. 27, the day the Falcons were eliminated from postseason consideration.
Different year, different division. The Panthers are 1-5 and a mess. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 2-3. Had Richard Sherman been flagged for interference last weekend, the Falcons might well hold a 2 1/2-game lead in the NFC South. As is, they’re up by 1 1/2 games having negotiated what seemed the toughest part of their schedule: Carolina, at Denver, at Seattle.
What with Carolina refusing to lose over the first 14 games, at no point last season could we say that the Falcons were clearly the division’s best team. We can say as much now. That’s subject to sudden change — yet again, we reference 2015 — but really: With nobody else in the South above .500, who’s really a challenger?
Back to Football Outsiders: Going by the site's proprietary measurement — DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) — the Falcons are the NFL's sixth-best team. The Saints are 21st, the Panthers 24th and the Bucs 29th.
So: How do the Falcons get to 10-6? There’s Ye Olde Rub. If we go by DVOA, their easiest games will be against the Rams, the Panthers, the 49ers and the Bucs. Those are also four of the Falcons’ five remaining road games, which means none will be a walkover.
The Packers and Cardinals, both of whom come here, haven’t played to expectations, which isn’t to say they won’t. The Chargers, who’ll grace the Dome on Sunday, are 2-4 and have blown many leads, but DVOA ranks them 13th overall. The Eagles and Chiefs are 3-2 and ranked fourth and 14th, respectively. Just eyeballing the rest of the schedule, the easiest game stands to be New Orleans here Jan. 1, and when are the Saints ever easy?
The frustrating part about last season’s collapse was that it came against a schedule that wound up as the NFL’s second-softest. Going by last year’s records, this season’s slate was tied with San Francisco’s as the league’s roughest. Even with Denver and Seattle in the rearview mirror, there’s not even a two-week stretch that can be deemed a lull. (At L.A. on Dec. 11 and then San Fran here on the 18th would seem the closest, and that’s a ways away.)
Then again, the Falcons have been much better that most of us — and by "us" I definitely mean me — expected, and Dan Quinn took pains after the Seattle near-miss to draw the distinction between last year's team and this year's. If the Falcons can be 4-2 having been favored only once, they should be able to get to 10-6. But if you check the schedule, you have to concede: It won't be easy.
Still, we return to the those three games — Panthers here, Broncos in Denver, Seahawks in Seattle. Not so long ago, the most optimistic among Falcons fans would have taken 1-2 as a best-case scenario. The men of Quinn came very close to sweeping against the reigning NFC champ, the reigning Super Bowl champ and the team that has, since 2012, been the class of the NFC. Having already been surprised by these Falcons, we shouldn’t be shocked when they make the playoffs.
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