NFL's physical testing methods scrutinized

But the validity of the physical tests used at the NFL scouting combine as a predictor for success in the league is questioned in an academic study that will be published in April.

"College performance and what they've actually done in the past is a key predictor," said Brian J. Hoffman, a professor at the University of Georgia, a co-author of the research paper. "It is a much more important predictor than the physical abilities that are measured at the combine."

The 29-page paper is entitled "On the Predictive Efficiency of Past Performance and Physical Ability: The Case of the National Football League." It's set to be published in an academic journal called Human Performance.

Hoffman, Brian D. Lyons (California State-Fresno), John W. Michel (Towson) and Kevin J. Williams (State University of New York-Albany) wrote the paper after compiling research. The sample group included 764 players drafted in 2002, 2003 and 2004. They excluded kickers, punters and offensive linemen because it was more difficult to measure linemen's success and because of the small number of punters and kickers drafted.

"We think the combine tests are not job-related," said Lyons, whose expertise is human-resource management.

The 40-yard dash, where the players run in track uniforms, has no direct correlation to playing football. Rarely will most players be asked to run unabated in a straight line for 40 yards.

"Physical-ability tests in the firefighting profession, those tests are mostly job-related in that they do measure a job-related task," Lyons said. "Dragging a 100-pound dummy 100 yards is indicative of what a firefighter would have to do if he or she had to save someone from a burning building."

While the study doesn't forward any recommendations, Lyons believes having the players run the 40-yard dash in football equipment would be a better test.

The three-cone drill, where three cones are placed in an L-shape, is designed to test a player's ability to change directions at a high speed.

"The three-cone drill was not a valid indicator of all of those ability tests," Hoffman said. "It was one of the least predictive."

The 225-pound bench press has some predictive value.

"There's a footnote in the paper that states it did predict for one position, and that's it," Lyons said. "I think for defensive linemen and by their second year."

Some NFL teams agree with the basic conclusions of the study.

"No question, I've always said that 90 percent of an evaluation is based on what they do from August through December or January in college players' season or a series of seasons," said Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh's director of football operations. "What they do here just supplements everything that they've done up to this point."

Mike Tannenbaum, the New York Jets general manager, also basically agrees with the study, but contends that the "love of football" is the best predictor.

"[Chicago Bears general manager] Jerry Angelo said it best, he said tape sets the floor and character sets the ceiling," Tannenbaum said. "But do you really love football? Can you handle adversity? When you have more time and more money, how are you going to react to those things?"

NFL teams seem to value the interview process most at the scouting combine.

"We're trying to find out who the person is, as well as who he is as the player," Colbert said.

Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff is a strong advocate of watching the combine drills.

"I'm a believer in evaluating movement, fluidity, athleticism, urgent athleticism and reactionary athleticism," Dimitroff said. "You get a good chance to see it out here at the combine. It's not going to knock someone down or jack them way up on the [draft] board, but again, it earmarks the player to revisit and compare again to what you viewed of him in college."

During the years studied, there was no past performance to predict that Matt Cassel, who never played quarterback while at USC, would develop in to a successful starting NFL quarterback. Also, Fort Valley State wide receiver Ricardo Lockette, of Albany, who was invited to the scouting combine, is super fast, but has limited college stats to predict his NFL future.

"Those players are really the anomalies in the NFL," Lyons said.

So while we'll hear about the fastest, strongest and highest jumper at the combine, that doesn't mean he can block and tackle in the NFL.

"Physically, ability testing adds very little information to determine how they are going to do when they get into the NFL and to the degree that it told us anything at all, it quickly tapered off after a season or two in the NFL," Hoffman said.