The Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers Sunday, Jan. 22, 2017, in the NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome.
FALCONS RUN OFFENSE VS. PACKERS RUN DEFENSE
Falcons: A rotation of multi-purpose backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and a line that Pro Football Focus ranked No. 1 in the NFL in run blocking pushed the Falcons to a No. 5 ranking in yards per game (120.5) and yards per carry (4.5), and the Falcons have scored 20 touchdowns on the ground. "It all starts with a run game, and what you do with the run game," offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said. Against the Packers in October, the Falcons rushed 19 times for 90 yards and a score, even though Coleman didn't play. The fact that the Falcons are the only NFL team to start the same five offensive linemen in every game has gone a long way to build chemistry and efficiency.
Packers: Green Bay ranked No. 1 against the run through the first third of the season or so before Ezekiel Elliot and the Cowboys gouged them, but they're generally solid slowing the run, especially between the tackles. The inside rotation of tackles Mike Daniels, LeTroy Guion, Christian Ringo and Kenny Clark is, "big and strong and they can hold the point really well," left guard Andy Levitre said. That often leaves linebackers clean, as rookie middle man Blake Martinez had 69 regular-season tackles, trailing only outside linebacker Jake Ryan (82) and safeties Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (80) and Morgan Burnett (93) — who often plays up like a linebacker. Green Bay ranked No. 8 against the run (94.7 ypg) and No. 14 in yards allowed per carry (4.0).
Advantage: Falcons
FALCONS RUN DEFENSE VS. PACKERS RUN OFFENSE
Falcons: This might have proved to be more of a problem for the Falcons if their offense hadn't put up so many points that opponents frequently had to abandon the run. Even with that, the Falcons ranked only No. 17 against the run (104.5 ypg) and allowed 4.5 yards per rush (No. 26). Nose tackle Grady Jarrett eats space and drops anchor nicely, yet the Falcons are more vulnerable inside than out as added speed in the linebacker corps this season has helped defend the wide game. Often as not, the safeties come forward to help in the run game, especially strong man Keanu Neal. "
Packers: Green Bay runs the ball more than you think, and better than you know — if unconventionally. Sure, the Pack lost running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks to injuries, and they've converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery to the backfield. In spite of all that, they rank a respectable No. 8 in rushing (94.7 ypg) and No. 7 in yards per carry (4.5). The Packers' offensive line, keyed by Pro Bowl guard T.J. Lang and tackle Bryan Bulaga on the right side helps them make hay. Montgomery is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and Rodgers — whose second on the team in rushing — 5.5 while running 4.2 times per games.
Advantage: Packers
FALCONS PASS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS PASS DEFENSE
Falcons: The Falcons have been absurdly effective through the air, where quarterback Matt Ryan has put up MVP-caliber numbers while leading the NFL by nearly a light year in yards-per-attempt (9.2) while completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 38 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He's half of an All-Pro combination with wide receiver Julio Jones, who caught 83 passes for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns. He's far from the Falcons' only weapon, though, as Ryan set an NFL record by throwing touchdown passes to 13 players. Wideouts Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick Robinson can all do work, and even Coleman are threats to go long. Gabriel is crazy fast, a serious weapon in the screen game. The offseason acquisition of Pro Bowl center Alex Mack has stabilized an offensive line. The Falcons rank No. 3 with an average of 295.3 passing yards per game.
Packers: This is a mismatch. Beyond the fact that Green Bay's pass rush has been compromised by the age of end Julius Peppers and injuries to linebacker/end Clay Matthews, the secondary has been besieged by injury for a team that ranks 31st in pass defense while allowing 269.3 yards per game and 32 touchdown passes. They're good at safety with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and especially Morgan Burnett, but Burnett suffered a quad injury last week against Dallas and is no lock to play. The Packers' best cornerback, Sam Shields, was lost early in the season to a concussion, and more injuries and youth have been problematic at cornerback. Youngster LaDarius Gunter was smoked last week by the Cowboys' Dez Bryant, and fellow starter Damarious Randall wasn't a lot better. Quenten Rollins (concussion) didn't play against Dallas and has been limited. Rookies Kentrell Brice and Josh Hawkins have been pressed into action recently.
Advantage: Falcons
FALCONS PASS DEFENSE VS. PACKERS PASS OFFENSE
Falcons: The emergence of outside linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. in his second season has improved the pass rush significantly, as he led the NFL with 15.5 sacks. The Falcons also pressured Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson a whopping 20 times. Otherwise, the numbers don't look good. The Falcons rank No. 28 against the pass, allowing 266.7 yards per game although it should be remembered that opponents have frequently had to throw a lot against the Falcons. A season-ending shoulder injury to cornerback Desmond Trufant made a starter of second-year pro Jalen Collins, and the Falcons lost their second-leading sack man last week when end Adrian Clayborn (4.5 sacks) went down with a torn biceps muscle. Speedy cornerback Robert Alford has had his best season as a pro, and rookie strong safety Keanu Neal has been a revelation, though chiefly as an enforcer. Similarly, undrafted rookie corner/slot Brian Poole has been a pleasant find for a unit run led by steady free safety Ricardo Allen. If the Falcons are to break even in this matchup, it likely will be because of the force they play with.
Packers: Rodgers is on a tear, surpassed by no player in the NFL save perhaps Ryan. The two-time NFL MVP ripped the Falcons in Game 8, although he didn't throw deep often. He completed 28 of 38 for 246 yards and four touchdowns — all of less 10 yards. The guy can wing it deep with the best of all-time, however, and may be unmatched on Hail Mary passes. Oh, and he can improvise, as when he made up a play in the final minute Sunday and threw a 36-yard pass to tight end Jared Cook — who didn't play against the Falcons — to set up a game-winning field goal as time expired. His pass protection is well above average, and Rodgers holds the ball longer than most. He's lethal out out of the pocket with numbers that far exceed all other NFL passers. The Packers rank No. 7 in passing offense (262.4 ypg), and Rodgers has thrown an NFL-high 40 touchdowns against only seven interceptions. Keep an eye on injuries. Green Bay's two leading wide receivers, Jordy Nelson (cracked ribs) and Devonte Adams (ankle) are dinged and questionable to play.
Advantage: Packers
SPECIAL TEAMS
Falcons: This was the closest thing to a mess for the Falcons against the Seahawks, as Seattle return man Devin Hester broke a long punt return to the 7-yard line only to have it called by penalty, and he hit multiple nice kickoff returns, too. Falcons return man Eric Weems failed to fair catch a punt that bounced to where Seattle downed it at the 1. Fortunately, the Falcons then drove 99 yards for a touchdown. "Devin's a good player, and there's things that we've got to clean up," Falcons special-teams coordinator Keith Armstrong said. The teams have similar numbers defending punt returns, but Weems and the Falcons have been more effective bringing then back. The Falcons' average of 9.0 yards per return ranks No. 5 in the NFL. There's no discernible difference statistically in these teams' kickoff-return numbers, but the Falcons have been better defending. Pro Bowl kicker Matt Bryant is nearly automatic. He's made 34 of 37 (91.9 percent) and 56 of 57 PATs. He's 6-of-8 on field goals of 50 yards and beyond.
Packers: The Packers have been mundane to a great degree on special teams. They've spread punt-return duties around, with Micah Hyde doing it most often yet to only a 5.8-yard average. Trevor Davis (12.8) and Cobb (13.5) have been most effective although the Packers returned only 16 punts in 16 games for an overall average of 9.0 yards per to rank No. 14. Ty Montgomery has returned more kickoffs than anybody else, yet Green Bay ranks 24th with an average of 19.7 yards, and the Packers' kickoff coverage ranks last in the NFL, as they allowed 26.3 yards per game. Kicker Mason Crosby is more than solid, making 26 of 30 field goals (86.7 percent) and 44 of 47 PATs. He made 1-of-2 from 50 yards or beyond in the regular season, but he made from 56 yards and then 51 — twice, including the one the Cowboys "iced" — last week in the final minute in Dallas.
ADVANTAGE: Falcons
COACHING
Falcons: Given that this will be only the second playoff game of Dan Quinn's career as a head coach with him flipping and pulling all the decision switches and levers, this isn't really a fair fight. Quinn is not about to suggest that his decisions on the sidelines, nor those of his assistants, will swing this game one way or the other. But they might. It may be more likely that smaller-scale, game-day decisions like those made by offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Richard Smith will tilt the field. Quinn said, "As far as the game goes, we treat each game as it goes. We don't look for a shootout … The ball's going to be a real factor in this game. Who can knock it out and create a few extra possessions." With that in mind, the Falcons were plus-11 in turnover margin during the regular season, where Green Bay was plus-8.
Packers: This will be the 18th postseason game with Mike McCarthy at the helm for Green Bay, so the Packers' head coach has a huge advantage in experience. Perhaps he and his staff have already done exemplary coaching, rallying the team from a 4-6 record to eight consecutive wins, the past five coming in rematch games from their regular season. The Packers knocked off the NFC's No. 1 seed on the road, and now they're aiming at the No. 2 Falcons. They believe. "The stresses we were going through there was no panic, there was no drama you think there might have been based on the external representation of it. We're right where we planned on being, playing in the NFC Championship game with a chance to go to Houston," McCarthy said.
Advantage: Packers
INTANGIBLES
Falcons: There's no way to consider the Falcons' home field anything but an advantage for the Birds, and a fan base recently adrenalized like never before is sure to be in full throat in the Georgia Dome. Add the fact that beyond wide receiver Julio Jones' sore toe and other bumps and bruises, the only significant difference injury-wise between last week and this is the loss of defensive lineman Adrian Clayborn. That matters, to be sure, yet the Falcons' general health and their overall team speed, especially on defense, may make the difference. The Falcons feel better about themselves, too, than going into the NFC Championship game four years ago against San Francisco. "We're a complete team now," said Julio Jones. "We were good (after the 2012 season). It was like, 'We're here. We're here.' We didn't know how to handle it."
Packers: Green Bay is the more experienced team in just about every way, except in years of service at kicker, and that includes postseason logs. They have greater injury issues than the Falcons, though, on offense and defense. The status of wide receivers Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams, Geronimo Allison and even Jeff Janis, and the slew of maladies in the Green Bay secondary may come to bear. The Packers are better, obviously, than when these teams met in October. Perhaps the Falcons improve even more. The defense is playing much faster compared with when these teams first met as the youngest birds have grown up fast.
Advantage: Falcons
About the Author