For the defending NFC champion Falcons, their path to the playoffs is simple.
Win their remaining games, and they repeat as NFC South division champs.
The Falcons (8-5) trail the New Orleans Saints (9-4) and Carolina Panthers (9-4) with three games to play. The Falcons play Tampa Bay (4-9) at 8:30 p.m. Monday at Raymond James Stadium.
The Falcons haven’t been dazzling for much of the season and are coming off a 20-17 win over the Saints. In that game where Matt Ryan was misfiring, and there were some curious coaching decisions during the two-minute drill before halftime and a declined penalty late that could have backfired.
“All three phases have some things to work on,” Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. “Some of it was even individually, player-wise, technique-wise, some scheme things. That’s what we’re chasing; our best performance, and we feel like that’s out there for us, so we’re going after that hard.”
The Falcons’ remaining games are at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans on Dec. 24 and at home against Carolina on Dec. 31.
There’s a scenario where the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all could finish 11-5, which would happen if the Falcons win all three and the Saints and Panthers win their other two games and lose to the Falcons.
The Saints would have to beat the Jets and Tampa Bay and lose to the Falcons.
The Panthers would have to beat Green Bay and Tampa Bay and lose to the Falcons.
The Saints beat Carolina twice this season. Under this scenario, the Falcons would have beaten the Saints twice and split with Carolina.
The second tie-breaker is best win percentage in games played within the division, and that would go to the Falcons if they win the next three to finish at 5-1 in the division. The Saints would finish 4-2 and Carolina 3-3.
The Falcons can still make the playoffs at 10-6 with right combination of wins. They also have the head-to-head tiebreakers over Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas and Detroit. Two losses to Buffalo and Miami could prove to be costly.
Still, the Falcons know they may be in a must-win situation the rest of the way to win the division.
“Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.”
The Falcons were off and were able to watch Miami knock off New England on Monday night.
The Falcons don’t plan to overlook Tampa Bay.
“We just have to really go into Tampa with the mindset that we have to dominate,” Campbell said. “We can’t go in there saying, ‘oh, we are playing Tampa; they are 4-5’ or whatever their record is and they are not playing well.
“This is the NFL. Everybody is good. If we go in there with the mindset that we are playing a lower-caliber team, that’s how teams get upset. That’s how they get beat. We just have to treat every game the same and approach it the same.”
The Falcons beat the Bucs 34-20 on Nov. 26 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bucs played without quarterback Jameis Winston, who was out with a shoulder injury.
“We’re going into what could be a tough environment on Monday night,” defensive end Adrian Clayborn said. “They are going to be ready. We already beat them once this season. If you get punched in the mouth once, what are you going to do? You’re going to fight back. So, they are going to be ready to fight and we better be ready to brawl with them.”
Quinn got a chance to watch the Bucs play the Detroit Lions on TV on Sunday. Detroit needed a last-minute field goal from Matt Prater to prevail 24-21, as the Bucs couldn’t overcome five turnovers. Winston had two interceptions and a fumble. Running back Doug Martin and tight end O.J. Howard also had fumbles.
“I saw that game, and just seeing the different examples of finishing, two-minute (drills), and end of games that come up, so we always check those around the league,” Quinn said. “Yeah, I had a chance to get a whole game in TV-wise from them. It kind of showed, I thought, the resiliency of their team. After that many turnovers, having a chance to go battle for it at the end, that shows the toughness of their group.”
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