Two weeks into the NFL playoffs and presumably several weeks after the Falcons began to sort through the wreckage of their most disappointing season in franchise history, there’s an uncomfortable reality coming into focus: A return to power in the NFC South is going to be significantly difficult.
Only four NFC teams remained in the playoffs entering the weekend. Two of those were from the Falcons’ division: Carolina and New Orleans, who went 4-0 against the Falcons and entertained the possibility of facing each other for the conference championship.
The fourth division team: Tampa Bay. It matched the Falcons’ 4-12 record in the regular season and subsequently fired coach Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers likely took a huge step toward respectability with this week’s hiring of coach Lovie Smith.
Smith has his flaws on offense, but he long has been one of the NFL’s top defensive coaches, and he somehow made it to the Super Bowl with Chicago in 2006 despite having Rex Grossman (20 interceptions, eight fumbles) as his quarterback. That accomplishment ranks as one of the great mysteries of the world, along with the pyramids and Stonehenge.
Tampa Bay’s expected ascent is one more reason why the Falcons’ margin for error this offseason has shrunk to almost nil.
Franchise officials view this season as a hiccup. That’s fair. Five winning seasons and four playoff berths in five years have earned general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith the benefit of the doubt. But both acknowledge roster mistakes that contributed to this season’s unraveling, and it’s clear similar mistakes can’t be repeated.
The dispatched John Abraham and Brent Grimes both had Pro Bowl seasons, and the offensive line caved in. So it’s probably fair to suggest not everybody would agree with Dimitroff’s assessment: “I don’t believe that we made mistakes as far as individually cutting people and releasing people. There were a lot of things involved in that from the standpoint of not only their ability on the field, but other things that played into it from a cap standpoint, etc.”
However, most would agree with Dimitroff’s immediate follow-up comment that “the aggregate” of cutting several veterans in one offseason backfired.
The Falcons will have tremendous weapons on offense next season. But they’re going nowhere unless the problems up front on both sides of the ball are fixed, so they’ll need to click on every major decision in the draft and free agency.
Just consider the backdrop in their division:
Carolina: This isn't to suggest that any team is collapse-proof. We just witnessed the Falcons becoming only the third playoff No. 1 seed (out of 98) since 1975 to finish in last place the following season. But Carolina's 12-4 regular season wasn't a fluke, and there's no reason to believe it will fall back next season.
The Panthers ranked No. 2 in points allowed (15.1 per game), No. 1 in sacks (60) and No. 2 in rush defense (86.9 yards per game). One reason is they have something the Falcons don’t: a tremendous front seven, led by end Greg Hardy (15 sacks) and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly.
Quarterback Cam Newton still isn’t elite. But he can win games now and, more important, he’s not losing them. This team is that good.
New Orleans: The two worst aspects of this season for Falcons' fans: 1) Their team stunk; 2) The Saints didn't. Sean Payton's return from a suspension and the hiring of Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator were the difference in going from 7-9 last season to 11-5.
The Saints are not as good as they were when they won the Super Bowl (2009). They’re probably not even as good as the two years that followed (combined regular-season record 2009-11: 37-11). But they’re also not as close to falling off a cliff as they looked a year ago.
It’s not all about Drew Brees. New Orleans’ defense had 49 sacks this season, allowed only 19 points per game and held opposing quarterbacks to a composite efficiency rating of 83.6.
By comparison, the Falcons had only 32 sacks, allowed 27.7 points and saw opposing quarterbacks shred them with a rating of 102.4 rating (second worst in the league).
Notice a trend here?
Tampa Bay: The Bucs had no offense. Some of that can be attributed to Josh Freeman's meltdown and Schiano's general kookiness. Even if Mike Glennon (average) keeps the quarterback job, Tampa Bay might be a .500 team. Why? The defense. The Bucs have stars at all three layers: line (Gerald McCoy), linebacker (Lavonte David) and secondary (Darrelle Revis). They also have a former defensive coordinator as a head coach in Smith and a solid new coordinator in Leslie Frazier.
The Bucs’ offensive line isn’t nearly as bad as it played this season. Actually, it might be pretty good, which suggests they’ll be able to do two things next season: block and tackle. Even with rule changes and the evolution of offenses, that’s generally what still decides games.
It follows that’s where the Falcons need to improve most, or they’re going to be looking up to the rest in the division again next year.
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