Florida still needs significant help to break into the national championship game, but it can probably solidify a BCS bowl berth this week.
The Gators are among five one-loss teams near the top of the BCS standings after former No. 1 Kansas State and No. 2 Oregon lost Saturday night. The new rankings released Sunday night have undefeated Notre Dame (11-0) in the lead, followed by No. 2 Alabama (10-1), No. 3 Georgia (10-1), No. 4 Florida (10-1), No. 5 Oregon (10-1) and No. 6 Kansas State (10-1).
Whether the Gators stay in that group depends on Saturday’s game at Florida State (3:30 p.m., ABC). With the Seminoles (10-1) at No. 10 in the BCS, this is the most important game in the rivalry since 2000, when both schools were in the top four of the Associated Press poll.
“These things are still out there for us, so we all understand where we are,” Florida coach Will Muschamp said about his team’s postseason opportunities. “You can stick your head in the sand and pretend it’s not going to get talked about, but it is going to get talked about. I address it with them and then we move on.”
The BCS is determined by a combination of polls and computer rankings. The USA Today coaches’ poll has the Gators No. 6, while the Harris poll has them fifth. The mathematical formulas have them No. 2.
Muschamp probably has not delved into every scenario, but his team’s fate hinges on what happens Saturday. There is slightly less at stake for Florida State, which would have to climb over eight teams to get into the championship game. Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, the Seminoles can still clinch a trip to the Orange Bowl by winning the ACC title game Dec. 1.
If Florida beats FSU, it should finish the season no worse than fourth in the rankings, guaranteeing a BCS berth. Alabama and Georgia have the chance to win their way into the national title game the next two weeks, including their upcoming duel in the SEC championship game Dec. 1. That would stick the Gators in the Sugar Bowl against an at-large selection.
To play for the big prize, the Gators need to win this week and get help from the top three teams. If Notre Dame loses at Southern California (which is unranked and starting its backup quarterback because of starter Matt Barkley’s shoulder injury) on Saturday, there could be another all-SEC national title game with Florida taking on whoever wins the conference.
If no SEC team makes the BCS title game — perhaps because of an upset this week when Alabama faces Auburn while Georgia takes on Georgia Tech — the winner of the conference title will go the Sugar Bowl and the SEC could send a second school as the at-large entry to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl.
However, a loss in Tallahassee could cause UF to plummet. Going 10-2 in a power conference often is good enough to land in a BCS bowl, but the SEC is loaded. It has six of the top 12 teams in the BCS, and all of them have a shot to finish 10-2 or better.
That could bump the Gators to a wide spectrum of possibilities. They still would be a strong candidate for the Capital One Bowl, which usually gets the second- or third-best SEC team, but might slip as low as the Chick-fil-A Bowl. That game pits the fifth or sixth team from the SEC against the No. 2 team from the ACC.
Either way, the fact that Florida is even in the conversation for a BCS bid is a sign of major progress compared to when the Gators sat at 7-5 and 6-6 the end of the 2010 and ’11 regular seasons, respectively.
“We’re in a way better position,” cornerback Loucheiz Purifoy said. “Anything can happen at this point.”
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