It’s that time of year again when we are forced to play the game, “What is Frank Wren thinking?”
Not as in: “What is Frank Wren thinking?” as in he clearly must be nuts. More like, “What is Frank Wren thinking?” as in … really, we don’t know.
Following last season, when the Braves won 96 regular season games but only one in the postseason, not including their swindle in Cobb County, Wren was asked about his team’s shortcomings. The Braves’ general manager conceded going into the winter trade and free agent market that a top-of-the-rotation starter qualified as “an area of need.”
Now we are witnessing the backtracking.
The winter meetings were held last week. We heard two soundbites from Wren that have become staples for any general manager who’s trying to spread calm and minimize the expectations of a fan base: “We like our team,” which he said at the start of the meetings, and, “We leave here feeling good about where we are,” which he said at the end of the meetings.
But where exactly are the Braves? Because right now they seem further from contending for a World Series than they were at the end of last season, not closer. There also is no indication that a major move is going to happen.
The Braves’ biggest moves? Subtractions. Starting catcher Brian McCann and veteran pitcher Tim Hudson left in free agency. Those decisions might put a team over the top — but it will be the Yankees or the Giants, not the Braves.
The biggest most plausible remaining transaction between now and Feb. 13 when the Braves open spring training might be getting another team to bite on Dan Uggla. The object: to eliminate at least some of Uggla’s remaining $26 million anchor on the payroll. In other words, a third subtraction.
Trades are still possible. The free agent window remains open. But there’s little reason to believe the Braves will land a No. 1 starting pitcher. They don’t have a lot of payroll room because they owe millions next year and beyond to Uggla, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton, three players Wren incorrectly projected would make them a title team. Also, this organization has seemed forever gun shy of dealing prospects since the Mark Teixeira trade backfired.
Therefore, those early David Price, Tampa Bay trade wishes appear to have lottery odds.
The Braves are good, not great. They have significant flaws. Right now, we are hearing spin wrapped in a warm winter blanket of hope. The team is operating on assumptions, like, “Look what our young roster did last season. We’re going to be even better when everybody is one year older.”
Really? Is that how it works?
The Braves haven’t won a playoff round in 12 years. Wren has overseen a needed roster transformation since taking over in 2008. The pitching staff has been completely rebuilt.
But while winning 90-plus games and reaching the postseason in three of the last four seasons, this club also has lost seven of the nine playoff games it has played in. That should indicate something.
The Braves’ starting pitchers in the divisional series against St. Louis (3-1 series loss) had a combined ERA of 6.63 (eighth worst of 10 playoff teams) and allowed an opponent’s batting average of .398 (ranking ninth out of 10). Great starting pitcher doesn’t ensure championships, as we learned in the 1990s. But it’s no coincidence that the four teams possessing the best starting pitching in the playoffs were the last four standing: Boston (3.29 ERA, .249 opponent’s batting average), St. Louis (3.42, .220), Detroit (2.39, .194) and Los Angeles (3.26, .208).
This was manager Fredi Gonzalez in October: “All those teams that are in the playoffs now, they have a legit No. 1 guy, a top-of-the-rotation, No. 1 guy. I think potentially our guys could develop to that … but I think to go deeper into the playoffs, I think you need an ace, you need a bona fide No. 1.”
Nothing has changed.
The Braves’ projected returning starters include Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Brandon Beachy. All are young and good. But none is a proven No. 1 and Beachy is coming off his second elbow surgery.
Wren is talking about acquiring a “depth” pitcher. Let me translate “depth” for you: Won’t cost much. Won’t have to give up much. Won’t make the difference. (Confirmation: The Braves appears to be close to signing veteran pitcher Gavin Floyd.)
He kind of liked 40-year-old, PED ex-convict Bartolo Colon, who had a one-year career renaissance in Oakland last season. But the New York Mets won the bidding, and that’s fine because I figure if the Mets are willing to pay somebody $20 million, he’s destined to belly flop.
If the Braves stand pat, they will be assuming a lot — that everybody gets better, that Washington doesn’t rebound, that an ace emerges. That’s a lot to assume. But that’s not what you’re going to hear in press conferences.
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