Fifty wins is a significant total in the NBA. That would seem to be the case for the Hawks, who won 38 games and made the playoffs despite a below-.500 record last season.
Here are five reasons that a 50-win season is not out of the question for the Hawks.
1. The Boss is back
Al Horford will be 100 percent healthy after missing 53 games last season with a torn right pectoral muscle. The two-time All-Star center was injured 29 games into the season with the second torn pectoral of his career. At the time of his injury, Horford led the Hawks with 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Those are big numbers to get back.
Without Horford, the Hawks filled in with a committee of Elton Brand, Pero Antic, Gustavo Ayon and eventually bought out the contract of second-round pick Mike Muscala from Spain. Mike Scott was even forced to play minutes at center at one point with Antic and Ayon injured.
Through the first 29 games with Horford, the Hawks were 16-13 and were third in the Eastern Conference. After the injury, the Hawks went 22-31 (.415) the rest of the season and had losing streaks of eight, six and six games.
Coach Mike Budenholzer will have greater flexibility with his lineup with Horford available to play 33 minutes per night.
The presence of Horford also will be an advantage for point guard Jeff Teague. The two have developed a strong pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop game in their five seasons together. Teague struggled immediately after the loss of Horford until he stepped forward in the basket-attacking aspect of his game. With Horford as an available option, it will make Teague’s speed and quickness a bigger issue for the opposition.
Finally, Budenholzer looks forward to the return of Horford’s versatility. The Hawks are not big in the post, with Horford only 6-foot-10. However, he can do things with his speed, ballhandling and shooting touch to counter a height disadvantage. In Budenholzer’s system of pushing the ball up court, having Horford start a break after a rebound can be a good thing.
2. Depth
The Hawks did little in free agency, but the acquisitions were strategic. The signings of Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore will help on the wing behind DeMarre Carroll, especially on defense.
The Hawks added to their advantage of having frontcourt players who can stretch the floor with draft pick Adreian Payne. The 6-10 forward/center can play with his back to or away from the basket. Payne is still learning and may not be a regular part of the rotation, at least early, but he can rebound and use his length.
The Hawks became deeper with the return of two injured players. In addition to Horford, John Jenkins returns after missing much of last season with a back injury that eventually required surgery. The former first-round pick gives the Hawks another shooter off the bench.
The Hawks will enter the season with a maximum roster of 15 players. Budenholzer likely will use a rotation that goes 10 deep. It will be a luxury when an injury hits to have a capable replacement readily available.
“The depth and the size on the wing became an area that we could address (last offseason),” Budenholzer said. “At times when we subbed last year, we got pretty small. They were all good players, but you could argue we were a little small. Getting a little more depth and a little bigger is how I would characterize (the offseason goal).”
3. Defense
The Hawks ranked 15th in the NBA in points allowed last season (101.5 per game). Getting better on defense has been much of Budenholzer’s mantra in the offseason and training camp.
The additions of Sefolosha and Bazemore will help. Both can come in to relieve Carroll, who often had the task of guarding the opposition’s best non-big man. At times, the energy expended to do so had an impact on his offense and defense.
Muscala and Payne both add rim protectors that the Hawks lacked for much of last season.
Budenholzer wants to be better on defense as it will lead to easier baskets in transition, an area in which the Hawks can use their speed and versatility to excel.
4. Another year in the system
As a first-year head coach, Budenholzer installed new offensive and defensive systems. The work took some time to take hold. The offense, in particular, is predicated on multiple reads and movement. The more familiar the system is, the more comfortable the players are and the more they play on instinct.
The other advantage for the Hawks in this regard is that they return 13 players from last season. Training camp was not spent learning the system, but perfecting it.
According to NBA.com, the Hawks rank fourth in the NBA in returning minutes. With the 13 returners, the Hawks total 17,058 minutes, which is 86 percent from last season. Only the Spurs (97.4 percent), Trail Blazers (90) and Thunder (88.5) return more minutes.
5. The Eastern Conference
The competition in the East is not significantly better. Yes, the Cavaliers are an NBA title contender with the additions of LeBron James and Kevin Love. The Bulls have added Pau Gasol and will be near the top of the standings if Derrick Rose remains healthy. After that, does any team scare? The Hawks are in the mix with the Heat, Wizards, Raptors, Nets, Hornets, Pacers and Pistons.
With the loss of James, an aging Heat team will take a step back. The Pacers will be without Paul George and Lance Stephenson. The Knicks did not make a significant addition besides a head coach. The Wizards will play without Bradley Beal to start the season. The addition of Stephenson may hurt the Hornets’ chemistry. The Celtics, Magic, Bucks and 76ers are well behind.
The Hawks were 28-24 in the conference last season. There is substantial room for improvement.
Conclusion: If each of the above reasons means only two more wins this season, the Hawks would be a 48-win team. That is knocking on the door to the significant 50-win total. Consider the Suns won 48 games last season and finished ninth in the heralded Western Conference, a game behind the Mavericks for the final playoff spot.
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