The Braves hope this will be the last top-10 pick they use in quite a while.
Given how the 2018 season has progressed, their No. 8 selection in the first round of Monday’s draft may be their final first rounder of the rebuilding days.
It’s difficult to get a read on the Braves’ likeliest choice, given the plethora of options available at that point. Some believe this draft is especially unpredictable, with uncertainty abound after the first two choises.
The Tigers, picking first overall for the second time in franchise history, are expected to take Auburn right-hander Casey Mize, though even that’s not a lock. Mize boasts exceptional control and an impressive four-pitch repertoire.
Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart is commonly projected No. 2 to the Giants. It would place him in the same system that raised his idol, fellow Georgia native Buster Posey.
After that, things get murkier. This is Braves’ first draft under general manager Alex Anthopoulos, and while he’ll defer to scouting director Brian Bridges and several of the minds who preceded him, the team could buck previous trends.
The Braves’ bonus pool is $8,267,300, ranking 15th in MLB. The team forfeited its third round pick following MLB investigation into the previous regime’s malpractices, which included offering extra benefits to outfielder Drew Waters, whom the team took 41st overall last year.
The slot value for the team’s No. 8 selection is $4,980,700. The Braves went over slot-value in signing No. 5 pick Kyle Wright last season, when he received a then-record $7 million bonus.
Under the current system, teams can sign draftees to above or below slot values, which is relavant to the rest of their draft plans. Teams can spend more or less on the rest of their picks, depending on if they went above or below a pick’s allotment.
Teams and players’ representation will often come to informal agreements before the draft, which makes the event all-the-more unpredictable.
As for whom the Braves might select, there are a few oft-mentioned names.
Nolan Gorman, a high-school third baseman in Arizona, is frequently matched with the Braves in mock drafts. He’s considered the best power bat in the class in some eyes, and would be a change of pace from the team’s pitcher-heavy philosophy under the last regime.
Baseball America has linked the Braves with Gorman, referencing insiders’ belief that the franchise will make the biggest upside play.
Carter Stewart, a high school pitcher from Florida, is another popular projection. The Braves haven’t hesitated to take prep arms under Bridges, and if Anthopoulos puts faith in his call, perhaps that’s the pick.
Stewart, like Gorman, is a swing-for-the-fences pick. The 6-foot-6 righty has exhibited increasing velocity that’s helped him rise up boards. Stewart is among the favorites for becoming the first high-school arm taken.
Keith Law of ESPN called Stewart to the Braves a “very likely if the players get there” pick.
Cole Winn, who comes from the same California high school that produced Astros starter Gerrit Cole, and Ryan Weathers, a high-school lefty from Tennessee, are other options if the Braves go the young arm route.
The Braves worked out South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty recently, and he could be the best non-high school option.
Swaggerty slashed .296/.455/.526 with 13 homers and 38 RBIs in 57 games last season. He also drew 53 walks and stole nine bases. He’s lauded for his defense and speed.
The Braves have met with and done their homework on Bart, and he wouldn't oppose staying in Atlanta, but it's extremely unlikely he makes it to No. 8.
A college bat, such as Swaggerty, could provide the most immediate help. But even as the Braves draw closer to contention, that won’t have any effect on their thinking Monday.
The MLB draft is probably even harder to predict than those of the NFL or NBA. But without question, the Braves have a wide-ranging set of skills from which to choose.
