A snippet of baseball wisdom holds that you can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose one. The Braves could well lose the 2014 National League East title before April arrives by running afoul of another sage saying:
You can’t have too much pitching.
The Braves didn’t report to Lake Buena Vista, Fla., believing they had too much starting pitching, but they felt they had enough. They led the majors in ERA last season, and their starters held up their end in a season that saw Tim Hudson lost to a broken ankle and Brandon Beachy limited to five starts.
The Braves were confident enough in the arms under contract to let Hudson and Paul Maholm leave as free agents. But, adhering to the Hall of Fame counsel of Robert Joseph Cox — “When you think you have enough pitching, go get some more” — they signed Gavin Floyd and re-upped the journeyman Freddy Garcia as insurance. Surely that was enough. Wasn’t it?
Today we note that only two of the Braves’ projected starting pitchers — Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, who together have taken 45 big-league turns — will make the opening-day roster. Beachy and Kris Medlen were lost to elbow injuries in the most dire 24-hour span of any Braves spring and, given that this round of Tommy John surgery will be the second for both, might never be starting pitchers again.
Mike Minor developed shoulder soreness after trying to work himself into shape after urinary-tract surgery. Floyd, who was one fallback, is himself still recuperating from Tommy John surgery. Garcia, who was the other, was released.
Moving quickly, the Braves paid $14.1 million for the free agent Ervin Santana, who has alternated good seasons with bad, but needs to be really good for a second year running if the Braves are to stand a chance. They also signed Aaron Harang, who was pretty good in 2007 but has become the essence of mediocrity. According to Baseball Reference, his aggregate WAR (wins above replacement) rating since 2009 is 1.0, which is why he’s working for his sixth different team over six seasons.
To say the Braves were unprepared to lose two starting pitchers isn’t a legitimate criticism. No team is ever prepared to lose two starting pitchers. Big-league rosters aren’t constructed to accommodate seven starters. Had they re-signed Hudson, there would be no rotational spot for Wood, who’s younger and cheaper and whom the Braves deemed ready. If there was no place for Hudson, there would have been none for Maholm, whom the Braves omitted from their playoff roster because they didn’t feel he would be effective in long relief.
There was no way to plan for or around what happened to Medlen and Beachy. (To suggest that the Braves should have been wary because both had had Tommy John surgery is a second-guess that could be directed at every organization: One-third of all big-league pitchers have had the surgery.) This was simply a case of rotten luck. But now, on the cusp of opening day, we ask: Is there any way for the Braves to back and fill enough to repeat as division champs?
Probably not. Divisions are won by the team with the strongest rotation, and the word “strongest” is used advisedly. Another dollop of wisdom, this from the just-retired Jim Leyland: “It isn’t always the best rotation that wins, but the healthiest.” The Braves have forfeited that claim. Unless/until Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann walk off the mound clutching their elbows on consecutive days, the Washington Nationals have a clear edge in starting pitching.
That doesn’t mean the Braves can’t and won’t win 90 games and grab a wild card. Surely Jason Heyward won’t undergo two more rounds of surgery this season. Surely Freddie Freeman, one of the game’s fine young hitters, and Andrelton Simmons, maybe the greatest fielder since Omar Vizquel if not Ozzie Smith, won’t be addled by their contract extensions. Surely Craig Kimbrel will remain the best in the business. Surely Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton cannot hit any less than they just did.
The Braves’ everyday lineup is no worse than Washington’s, and their bullpen should again be better. But the Nationals finished 10 games behind the Braves last season because they were outpitched in the season’s first five meetings, and those five losses enabled the Braves to seize a 4 1/2-game lead by April 30.
The 2013 Nats were a team that really did lose a pennant in April, but sometimes what goes around comes around with a wicked twist. The 2014 Braves might just have lost the division before April.
