A look at Atlanta United’s must-win home games

Atlanta United has 12 games to play and a possible 36 points to earn to secure a playoff berth, preferably one it can host at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The team currently has 27 points. It trails D.C. United for the seventh and final playoff spot by three points.

It can blame its deficit on its poor home form.

Though its schedule is favorable with seven of the games at home, starting with the next one Sept. 10 against Orlando, the team has dropped 15 of its possible 30 points in games played at the Benz.

It’s not a coincidence that every team above Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference table has a better record at home than do the Five Stripes.

Centerback Anton Walkes said he wasn’t worried about the team’s home form.

“If you look at the last month, there has been a shift in momentum,” he said. “I think we’ve had a few more changes with a new coach, that’s not an excuse, but there are changes. Again, he has his ways of getting improvement for us. We will look over it, we are going to take some time like we have and we will find a way to come back for sure.”

If Atlanta United is to make the playoffs, it must improve his form at home.

In the years it made the playoffs, 2017-19, it went 34-7-10 at home. It is 4-3-3 this season. Should it win the next seven home games, its record will closely resemble that during the playoff years.

Here are five must-win home games:

Sept. 10 vs. Orlando. It is the next game, therefore it is the most important. Orlando is in second in the East with 35 points and is 3-3-4 on the road. The teams have yet to play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season. They’ve played twice in Orlando. The teams split the first meeting 0-0, and Orlando won the second 3-2.

The challenge will be more difficult because Atlanta United likely will be without striker Josef Martinez because of his call-up to Venezuela for its round of World Cup qualifying games. It also will be without fullback Ronald Hernandez for the same reason. Centerback Miles Robinson and fullback George Bello should be available but won’t have trained much, if at all, with the team because of their call-ups to the U.S. for its World Cup qualifiers.

It would be a huge confidence boost for Atlanta United if it could defeat Orlando, especially at home.

Sept. 15 vs. Cincinnati. It has the second-worst defense in the East with 37 goals allowed. It is a team that has scored only 21 goals, tied for second-fewest in the East. One of those goals scored and one allowed came in a 1-1 draw with Atlanta United at Cincinnati.

If Atlanta United doesn’t win this one, it probably shouldn’t even be in the playoffs.

Sept. 18 vs. D.C. United. Ahh, the team that Atlanta United currently trails and the one that probably feels aggrieved to have lost 2-1 when the teams met 11 days ago at Audi Field. D.C. United battered Atlanta United’s goal, but ran out of steam late with enough time remaining for the Five Stripes’ Marcelino Moreno to score the game-winning goal.

That’s been their only meeting this season.

D.C. United is awful on the road this season with a 2-7-3 record.

Sept. 29 or Oct. 27 vs. Inter Miami. While it would be nice to win both, it’s probably unlikely.

Inter Miami isn’t out of the playoff race. It has 23 points, 15 of which have come from its past eight games.

The teams have played once to a 1-1 draw this season in south Florida.

Like a few of Atlanta United games this season, the team had a 1-0 lead until it committed a mistake and allowed a goal on a very soft counterattack in the 77th minute.

Oct. 30 vs. Toronto. I know it’s been a few seconds, but remember what you read about if the team can’t beat Cincinnati ... double that sentiment for this game.

Toronto is awful.

It has given up 47 goals, eight more than the next worst defense in the entire MLS. Its offense has talent but no consistency.

This is Atlanta United’s last home game during the regular season.

It may very well be in a situation where if it wins this, it will move above the playoff line with two winnable road games remaining.

The team doesn’t want to put itself in a situation where it has to win a regular-season game on the road to clinch something. It doesn’t have a good history in those situations.

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Atlanta United’s 2021 MLS schedule

April 17 Atlanta United 0, Orlando 0

April 24 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 1

May 1 New England 2, Atlanta United 1

May 9 Atlanta United 1, Inter Miami 1

May 15 Atlanta United 1, Montreal 0

May 23 Atlanta United 1, Seattle 1