Trade market value for Falcons’ Julio Jones is low

Credit: AJC

Here’s a quick by-the-numbers look at Falcons star receiver Julio Jones entering the 2021 season.

Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones’ days with the Falcons are numbered, but the team is finding a tough marketplace for an aging receiver coming off an injury-riddled season.

“Jones just does not have a lot of interest,” former NFL executive Joe Banner wrote for the33rdteam.com website. “That does not mean no teams are interested or a trade will not happen, but you combine the age and health of the player with the salary he is due and with what the Falcons are seeking in a trade, I do not expect anything close to a massive offer from a team looking to acquire him.”

June 1 is an important date in NFL salary accounting. By trading Jones after June 1, the Falcons are allowed to split his dead-cap charge over two seasons. They could create $15.3 million in salary-cap space and have room to sign their rookie class. Currently the Falcons are only $285,693 under the salary cap.

By trading Jones after June 1, the Falcons would have over $23 million against the cap, but will be allowed to move $15 million of that dead-cap hit into 2022. They will have a dead-cap charge of $7.75 million for 2021.

Jones, the Falcons’ all-time receiving leader with 848 catches, 12,896 yards and 60 touchdowns, has been a mainstay of the offense since he was drafted sixth overall out of Alabama in 2011.

“It is going to be really hard for the Falcons to keep Jones because I think he has reached the point where he expects to be traded, and it will be really hard for them to backtrack on that,” former NFL general manager Mike Tannenbaum wrote on the33rdteam.com. “I do not think it is impossible he stays, but it certainly looks like we are reaching a point of no return, and the June 1 date just makes it easier for them to facilitate something.”

Jones’ relationship with the Falcons has deteriorated over the recent years. He recently went on Shannon Sharpe’s TV show on FS1 and stated “I’m outta there” when asked about his time with the Falcons.

Several teams, including the Patriots, Titans and Seahawks, reportedly are interested in Jones. There are several reports that the Falcons’ asking price — at least a first-round pick — is too high.

Jones’ skills have diminished over time, and he’s coming off an injury-plagued season.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones watches from the sideline during the Falcons' 23-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Jones did not play for a second consecutive game with a hamstring injury. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)

Credit: Jason Getz

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Credit: Jason Getz

“I still think Atlanta Falcons receiver Julio Jones is a good player,” Banner wrote for the33rdteam.com. “He is still big and strong, and I would still consider him an above-average route runner. The thing is, he’s not as fast as he was when he first entered the NFL 10 years ago. He was a better route runner back then, and he presented more of an intimidating presence for a defense. People that are talking about him in the same light as they did four or five years ago are misguided because his tape does not show anything close to that.”

The Falcons may have to settle for a second-round or a third-round pick.

“I think the team that acquires Jones gets a solid player if he can stay on the field, but I think there are significant reasons to be skeptical about Jones’ ability to stay healthy for the duration of a season,” Banner wrote. “He has dealt with numerous soft-tissue injuries over the past couple of seasons, and he has been dealing with mounting foot and ankle ailments.”

Jones has three years left on his contract, with $38 million remaining, including $17.3 million in guaranteed money.

There are 11 teams with the cap space to take on Jones’ contract: the Jaguars ($39.2 million in cap space), Broncos ($28.9 million), Jets ($27 million), Bengals ($22 million), Browns ($20.9 million), Chargers ($19.8 million), Lions ($18.8 million), 49ers ($17.6 million), Panthers ($17.5 million) Washington Football Team ($17.1 million) and Patriots ($16.1 million).

Tennessee ($3.2 million in cap space) and Seattle ($7.2 million) would have to create some cap space to take on Jones’ contract.

The move will not be a surprise around the league. The Falcons have been taking calls for Jones since April. He made his demand for a trade in March.

“The Falcons have been publicly marketing him for two months, so the notion that he killed his own trade value by speaking to Fox Sports last week is false,” Banner wrote. “Every team is aware of his situation and that he is no longer content playing in Atlanta.”

The Falcons can’t cut Jones because that would leave with $40 million in dead cap space.

The Falcons could retain Jones’ rights because he’s under contract for three more seasons. But the new regime likely wouldn’t want to move forward with a disgruntled superstar receiver who turned 32 in February.

“We’ve got so much respect and appreciation for what Julio Jones has done down here for the franchise and what he’s been to the city,” Falcons coach Arthur Smith said. “Like I said earlier, we have conversations about our roster all the time. There are things that happen; you have to have contingency plans.”

Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley (18) gets a helmet bump from Julio Jones after his first NFL touchdown against the Panthers on Sunday, Sept 16, 2018, in Atlanta.  (Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com)

Credit: ccompton@ajc.com

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Credit: ccompton@ajc.com

Without Jones, Calvin Ridley would take over as the No. 1 receiver. He caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He attended the OTA last week, but was not seen practicing. Also, slot receiver Russell Gage, who switched his jersey number from 83 to 14, would move to the No. 2 wide receiver spot.

Gage caught 72 passes for 786 yards and four touchdowns in 2020.

Other receivers on the 90-man roster include Greg Dortch, Austin Trammell, Tajae Sharpe, Frank Darby, Christian Blake, Antonio Nunn and Olamide Zaccheaus.

“Julio could balk to where he wants to go,” said NFL business analyst Joel Corry, a former agent and host of “Inside the Cap” podcast. “Would a team really want to take him on knowing that he didn’t want to be there. One way he could balk at it is, the only way I’m coming here is you’re going to have to re-do my contract.

“Coming off an injury plagued year at his age, without seeing that he’s (playing like) Julio when he’s healthy? Who wants to do that?”

The Falcons players are starting to realize that they are set to move on without Jones.

“Julio has been nothing but a great teammate,” left tackle Jake Matthews said. “Tremendous leader and outstanding player. I’d love to continue playing with him, but I feel this is something for him to kind of answer or Arthur.”

Quarterback Matt Ryan is preparing for losing his top target.

“He’s been such a cornerstone of what we’ve done for a long time,” Ryan said.

Ryan has a great deal of respect for Jones.

“He’s been just such a great player,” Ryan said. “He’s a helluva teammate. I love him, and we’ll see how things shake out. He’s probably impacted my career more significantly than any other player. I’ve been really fortunate to be around him for as long as I have.”

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