The Falcons’ front office isn’t so different from the average football fan.
As general manager Terry Fontenot said, the executives and scouts enjoy participating in mock drafts just as much as the fans like to consume them.
However, when the time actually comes, Fontenot will select the player of his choosing during the 2021 NFL draft. But during the pre-draft process, the Falcons’ front office will hold mock drafts to prepare for the various scenarios that can come up.
Spending his previous 18 years with the New Orleans Saints, Fontenot said his colleagues would hold multiple mock drafts in the days leading to the actual draft. Each of the scouts would pretend to be other teams and, depending on how the mock draft was set up, pick players with the information at their disposal.
“We always have mock drafts right before the draft, a few days before,” Fontenot said. “All the scouts in the room will each have teams. Each scout will have four teams, and you’ll go through a mock draft. You’ll print out these mock drafts. and certain scouts will be taking based on need and certain scouts will be taking based off best player available. And then you’ll throw a wild card in there, and they can take anybody. It’s always interesting to go through the mock draft and see who’s there and you make a decision on who you take.”
On a virtual call with local reporters, Fontenot cracked a smile thinking back to these mock drafts because of how unpredictable they can be. Inevitably, a scout will take a player in the first round who has no business going that early, which, in theory, could derail the exercise.
Then again, once the first few picks are selected during the actual NFL draft, it usually becomes anything but predictable.
“It’s actually a pretty fun process,” Fontenot said. “There is always somebody who struggles with it, they’ll pick guys in the first round who should go in the third. There’s always somebody who messes it up. But it’s a fun process.”
In sports media, mock drafts have practically become a separate industry of their own. While major media outlets employ draft analysts to craft their own mock drafts, sites such as WalterFootball.com and Drafttek.com specifically exist only to produce mock drafts throughout the calendar year. Pro Football Focus and The Draft Network both have mock draft simulators, allowing fans to pick teams and play pretend-GM.
Mock drafts are tremendous drivers of online traffic for media entities as well. Even NFL teams have entered the foray, as the Falcons’ team site has released NFL mock draft once a week since the offseason began.
What’s unique about mock drafts is that for all the attention they get, they generally differ widely from the actual event that takes place. Last year, the website FanasyPros.com tabbed the New York Post’s Steve Serby as having the best mock draft because he had 11 direct hits, meaning he scored a 34.4% accuracy rating. To compare, ESPN’s Mel Kiper, considered the first mainstream draft analyst in the industry, had direct hits on only six of 32 picks, giving him an 18.8% accuracy rating.
In recent years, it’s been hard to figure out who the Falcons were going to take since they were picking in the middle or end of the first round. Last season, NFL Media’s Bucky Brooks was the lone high-profile draft analyst to link the Falcons with cornerback A.J. Terrell at the 16th overall selection. A year before, there weren’t too many experts, if any, who pegged guard Chris Lindstrom to the Falcons at the 14th overall selection.
The media mock drafts will continue to be mostly wrong. But that won’t stop the demand for them from the football fanatic consumer.
With the Falcons holding the fourth overall selection, and with Fontenot touting a best-player-available strategy, it could potentially be a bit easier for the analysts to narrow down who the Falcons may select.
Most recently, Kiper has the Falcons trading up from the fourth pick to the second pick to take BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. In his most recent mock draft in mid-February, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has the Falcons staying at the fourth pick and taking Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields.
Of course, the media mock drafts are done through the lens of the analyst. Each team’s evaluation of players and draft philosophy will be different, which is what leads to the perceived variations on draft night.
Fontenot noted their in-house mock drafts won’t take too long in the first round this year based on where the Falcons are picking. But when the time comes to revisit the mock draft after the fact, Fontenot said it will be interesting to see how accurate his staff is -- just like the fans do with the analysts.
“The first-round mock draft will be a lot quicker being at four, but it’s kind of cool going through those mock drafts,” Fontenot said. “Sometimes when you get to the actual draft, some of those scenarios get close to actually playing out.”
