NORTH PORT, Fla. — The day pitchers and catchers report to spring training feels like the first day of school.
There’s a certain newness to it. Everyone is back together for the first time in months, and a lot may have changed since the last time they saw each other.
It also is a time for eternal optimism. Even the Athletics and Pirates believe they have a chance to do something special.
For a month and a half, everyone is 0-0, with World Series dreams still alive.
The Braves actually have realistic championship aspirations. They once again could be the best team in baseball. And this time, they hope for a different ending.
Here is what I’ll be watching for as Braves spring training begins Wednesday.
Who will be the fifth starter out of camp?
My top storyline for Braves camp is the battle for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. I’m fascinated by the names, by the factors, by the ripple effects of any decisions the Braves make.
I wrote a piece about why Reynaldo Lopez might make the most sense for the fifth spot in the rotation. The Braves are going to stretch him out. He’ll have a real opportunity to win the job.
But spring training, after all, is a proving ground.
A year ago, Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd surprised us all.
Bryce Elder was an All-Star last year. AJ Smith-Shawver is the organization’s top prospect and showed flashes of his talent last season. The Braves obviously see some upside in Huascar Ynoa, as president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos mentioned him in the rotation mix this offseason. (Ian Anderson likely won’t be ready to begin a rehab assignment until June, so he’s out of the competition for now.)
And don’t forget: Whoever wins the job out of camp might not hold it all season.
Plus, the Braves will look to keep Chris Sale healthy this year. That might mean giving him an extra day or two of rest here and there. It might be skipping him in the rotation.
The Braves’ approach to keeping Sale healthy could have some ripple effects. It might mean that Elder, even if he doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, gets more of an opportunity during the season. It could make Lopez – Lopez the starting pitcher, that is – more important. Others certainly will chip in this season.
Back to the fifth spot itself.
Lopez makes sense. Putting him in the bullpen creates an issue (more on that later). But Elder took major strides last year, Smith-Shawver has tons of potential and Ynoa will be healthy.
And we haven’t even mentioned Hurston Waldrep, the Braves’ first-round pick last summer. He’ll likely start the season in the minors, but after what Shuster and Dodd did – and yes, they’re different cases – I’m not ready to write off anyone.
Let the competition begin.
The battle for the final bullpen spot (Or two? Or more?)
Until further notice, the first seven bullpen spots seem to look like this:
Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jiménez, Tyler Matzek, Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee.
There could be some fluidity in here, based on injuries or performance. After all, six weeks is a long time, and anything can happen.
First off: This bullpen needs a length guy, like Jackson Stephens. (Michael Tonkin now plays for the Mets, so it won’t be him.) The mop-up duty can be important.
I’m also curious about Ray Kerr, whom the Braves acquired from the Padres in December. The Braves obviously liked the left-hander: They took on Matt Carpenter’s $5.5 million salary for 2024 to get Kerr. (The Padres reportedly gave the Braves $1.5 million to offset those costs, but this still would mean Kerr costs $4 million.) Kerr has minor-league options and six years of club control.
And what about non-roster invitee Ken Giles? I’d heard he was 94-96 mph at his recent tryout for teams. He might have something left.
Back to Lopez for a minute. If he fills that theoretical final spot in the bullpen, the Braves have only one optionable reliever (Lee). They wouldn’t have a traditional length guy. But he would make the bullpen better.
The Braves’ lineup, barring anything unforeseen, is set. In some order, these nine guys will fill the spots: Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, Jarred Kelenic and Orlando Arcia.
The bullpen, on the other hand, could feature a surprise or two.
How will the returners perform?
We haven’t seen Matzek since the end of the 2022 season. We haven’t seen Ynoa – in the majors, that is – since before that. We haven’t seen Anderson since last spring. We haven’t seen Lee since September.
The Braves might be counting on Matzek, but no pitcher is guaranteed a smooth return from Tommy John surgery. Can Matzek return to form and be like the guy who helped the team win a World Series?
Ynoa looked so good before fracturing his hand. Then he, too, had Tommy John surgery. Can he win the job out of camp and make a name for himself again?
We’ve seen Anderson dance in and out of postseason jams. He possesses potential and talent. Can he return and make it back to the majors this year?
I love spring training because of the surprises it might bring. You truly never know what will happen.
Some things are impossible to predict.
