With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Braves enter play Monday clinging to a two-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East.
The Braves’ win at San Francisco on Sunday, coupled with the Phillies’ loss to the Mets, dropped the Braves’ magic number to clinch the division to 13 (that is, any combination of Atlanta wins and Philadelphia losses totaling 13).
The race to the division title next goes through MLB’s two worst teams, with the Braves playing a four-game series at Arizona and the Phillies playing a three-game series at home against Baltimore. Arizona has the worst record in the National League at 48-101 and Baltimore the worst record in the American League at 47-102.
Neither the Braves nor the Phillies can afford to slip at this point against those opponents.
The schedule turns in the Phillies’ favor later in the week, when they host Pittsburgh (56-93) and the Braves visit San Diego (76-73, albeit 2-8 in its past 10 games and 10-24 in its past 34).
Here’s a look at how the NL East race shapes up with two weeks to go (all figures are entering play Monday):
BRAVES (77-70)
Games remaining: 15
Games remaining against teams that currently have winning records: 7 (including completion of a suspended game against San Diego)
Magic number to clinch division championship: 13
Odds to win division: 72.5% (per FanGraphs)
Remaining schedule: four games at Arizona (Monday-Thursday); four at San Diego (Friday-Sunday, including completion of suspended game from earlier in the season); three at home vs. Philadelphia (Sept. 28-30); three at home vs. New York Mets (Oct. 1-3); makeup game if necessary at home vs. Colorado (possibly Oct. 4).
PHILLIES (76-73, 2 games behind)
Games remaining: 13
Games remaining against winning teams: 3
Odds to win division: 27.1% (per FanGraphs)
Remaining schedule: three games at home vs. Baltimore (Monday-Wednesday); four at home vs. Pittsburgh (Thursday-Sunday); three at Braves (Sept. 28-30); three at Miami (Oct. 1-3).
METS (73-77, 5-1/2 games behind)
Games remaining: 12
Games remaining against winning teams: 8
Odds to win division: 0.4% (per FanGraphs)
Remaining schedule: two games at Boston (Tuesday-Wednesday); three at Milwaukee (Friday-Sunday); four at home vs. Miami (Sept. 28-30); three at Braves (Oct. 1-3).
About the Author
