With polls showing a tightening race amid a surge of early votes, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker are both holding out hope for an outright win, even while they prepare for the prospect of a Dec. 6 runoff.
As both candidates hover between 45% and 48% in most polls, even a modest showing from Libertarian Chase Oliver could knock the race into overtime, as Georgia law requires a majority-vote to win the seat.
Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC
Both Walker and Warnock are making a final push to avoid the four-week runoff period that would reset the race and require millions more in campaign resources.
Warnock unveiled a new TV ad this week that shows him intruding on a family’s Thanksgiving dinner.
“That’s right. I could be interrupting your Thanksgiving. Because if nobody gets 50% of the vote, there’ll be a runoff,” he says. “And nobody wants that to happen.”
Walker used a campaign stop in Ellijay on Tuesday to push Republican voters to turn out and end the election in November.
“Tell 10 of your friends to go vote. That’s it. And if you don’t have friends, make friends. Go vote,” said Walker. “I’m going to win that election. And I promise you, I promise you, I’ll fight for you.”
There’s no way to tell how much the early surge of participation cannibalizes the mail-in vote or Election Day turnout. Warnock sees plenty of opportunity for improvement.
“Our turnout is high, but the stakes are even higher,” he said.
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LISTEN UP. Today’s edition of the Politically Georgia podcast is now up, with the latest from Brian Kemp’s mega-deal on the coast, Stacey Abrams’ closing message, and the return of the Raphael Warnock-Jon Ossoff campaign tag team.
Listen and subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.
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DEMOCRATIC BACKUP. Gov. Brian Kemp picks up another Democratic endorsement today with a nod from former Gov. Joe Frank Harris, a conservative Democrat.
Harris said in a statement he is “proud of the tough decisions (Kemp) has made during these challenging times.”
Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
Kemp responded in kind, saying in a statement that “Georgia is better off today thanks to Gov. Joe Frank Harris.”
Harris is the second big Democratic name to endorse Kemp this week. On Monday, former first lady Shirley Miller, the wife of the late Gov. Zell Miller, also came out in support of the governor’s reelection.
Harris’ two terms in the governor’s mansion ran from 1983 to 1991, so he never shared time in the Capitol with either Kemp or Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. He was in office when his son, Joe Frank Harris Jr., and Kemp were students together at the University of Georgia.
The Kemp campaign’s decision to highlight the Harris and Miller endorsements this week is another example of the conservative Republican working to expand his appeal past his GOP base and court independent voters — and even a few Democrats — with less than two weeks left until Election Day.
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ABRAMS CUTTING SPENDING. We reported Tuesday that, after long spending more than $2 million each week to bombard the Georgia airwaves, records show Stacey Abrams’ campaign cut that total to roughly $800,000 in broadcast ads this week. Her campaign said the total bumps up to $1 million when including cable TV purchases.
In the meantime, Gov. Brian Kemp’s campaign reserved more than $2 million worth of ads this week. Groups backing Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock account for more than $4 million in ad spending between Tuesday and Oct. 1.
But Kemp’s message to supporters at southeast Georgia campaign stops this week hasn’t changed: “Don’t believe any polling.”
“They’re trying to get us to drive the bus to St. Simons for Georgia-Florida this weekend and just stay next week and rest up before the big vote,” he told a crowd in Claxton. “But we’re not going to do that. We’re going to keep the bus going.”
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Credit: Jason Getz/AJC
Credit: Jason Getz/AJC
CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK. Be sure to check AJC.com each afternoon through Election Day for our “On the Georgia Trail” feature, where we’ll recap the news and notes from the campaign trail in Georgia.
Here are the highlights from Tuesday:
- Gov. Brian Kemp, and Georgia’s two U.S. senators headed to Savannah for the groundbreaking of Hyundai Motor Group’s $5.5 billion “Metaplant.” Stacey Abrams’ campaign has pulled back on its ad spending.
- Mike Collins, the Republican nominee and heavy favorite in the 10th Congressional District, is on the campaign trail … in New Hampshire.
- The Concerned Women for America bus tour is spending three days in metro Atlanta as part of a nationwide effort to drum up turnout among conservative women.
- U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff joined U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock to reprise their 2021 tag-team campaign. “We are twins, you know!” Warnock laughed at one stop. “He just got all the hair.”
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ON THE TRAIL TODAY:
- Stacey Abrams’ bus tour continues with stops in Fort Valley, Newnan, and Union City.
- Herschel Walker’s bus tour will make stops at the Roy Ash Community Building in Cleveland and the Piggly Wiggly in Dillard. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham will be back to campaign with Walker in Cleveland.
- U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock will be in Statesboro, Swainsboro, and Augusta.
- U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop, who is in a tough reelection battle, will join health care advocates for Protect Our Care’s bus tour in Columbus. The tour is focused on health care provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.
- Fox News’ Bret Baier will broadcast his show live from Acworth this evening. His list of guests includes Gov. Brian Kemp and GOP Senate nominee, Herschel Walker.
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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
SECOND THOUGHTS. Robert Sinners, whose name you may recognize as the former Trump campaign staffer coordinating the GOP-elector for Trump scheme, is now the spokesman for Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Our colleague Mark Niesse has the story of how Sinners went from election-denier-helper to a trusted aide to the man who ran the lost election Trump won’t let go of.
“This far-flung election conversation has turned into the ultimate grift,” Sinners told Niesse. “As long as they can keep the grift going and keep these people sucked into their orbit, it’s going to be a fight that has to happen. And I want to be part of that fight against it.”
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Credit: TNS
Credit: TNS
ABOUT THAT LETTER. In Tuesday’s Jolt, we told you about a group of liberal Democrats, including Georgia U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson, who sent a letter to President Joe Biden asking him to negotiate with Russia over the war in Ukraine to “seek a realistic framework” for a cease-fire.
After an uproar from fellow Democrats, who complained the letter was ill-timed and undermined U.S. support for Ukraine, U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal retracted the letter. Jayapal, who had initially taken the lead on the letter as the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, blamed her staff for not vetting the letter before sending it.
Many of the members who signed the letter complained that they had agreed to add their names months ago before circumstances in the war changed. Others were unhappy the letter was released this week without alerting them ahead of time.
Johnson, a Lithonia Democrat, did not respond to our request for comment.
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NEVER MIND. Public Citizen, the nonpartisan consumer advocate, is walking back its criticism of spending by Fair Fight Action, as published by Politico this week.
The Politico investigation found that Fair Fight spent more than $25 million in two two years on legal fees, with at least $9.4 million going to the law firm helmed by Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, a longtime friend of Stacey Abrams, who is also the chair of Abrams’ campaign for governor. Abrams, of course, also founded Fair Fight.
Credit: Jenn Finch for the AJC
Credit: Jenn Finch for the AJC
In Politico, Public Citizen’s Craig Holman called the spending through Lawrence-Hardy’s firm “a very clear conflict of interest, because with that kind of close link to the litigation and her friend, that provides an opportunity where the friend gets particularly enriched from this litigation.”
But on Tuesday, Public Citizen retracted the statement, saying, “There is nothing unusual or troubling about organizational leaders hiring qualified friends or acquaintances to serve as legal counsel.” Politico has stood by its reporting.
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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
ABORTION ON THE BALLOT. Planned Parenthood Votes, the political arm of the reproductive rights organization, is running a second ad supporting Georgia Democrats this week.
“Abortion rights are on the ballot this election,” it says.
The six-figure digital buy will run in English and Spanish and support Stacey Abrams for governor, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, and other statewide Democratic candidates.
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SPALDING SHENANIGANS. State election officials are investigating a suspicious ballot that was submitted in Spalding County. Initial reports said the ballot, which was written out on yellow legal paper, may have been an outside effort to test the election system and cast doubt on its integrity.
The AJC’s David Wickert has more.
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Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
CONGRATS, Georgia voters! You officially reached the one-million mark in early voting. In-person early voting continues through Nov. 4.
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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
