Loeffler and Collins now have Warnock to worry about

In Georgia’s special election for the U.S. Senate, the spotlight has generally fallen on the feud within the Republican Party between U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler and U.S. Rep. Doug Collins.

For much of the campaign — which began immediately after Gov. Brian Kemp chose Loeffler over Collins for the seat that U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson vacated for health reasons — the two have sat atop the polls, with each occupying the No. 1 spot at times.

It’s been a fairly nasty affair, illustrated best, maybe, by one rival using campaign ads to compare the other to barnyard animals.

But at this stage in the race — a free-for-all with 21 candidates that will surely produce a January runoff — it’s not as important to be No. 1 as it is to be in the final two. And an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll this past week reveals that what had been a two-character drama now has a third player in a featured role: Democrat Raphael Warnock.

The poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 11-20 by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, puts support for Loeffler at 24%, Collins at 21% and Warnock at 20%, all within the margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

Warnock, the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, had been slow in coming. Despite the support of leading Democrats at the state and national level, including Stacey Abrams, he struggled for months to separate himself from other candidates in his own party, especially Matt Lieberman.

But now Warnock appears to have the most room to grow in a race against Loeffler and Collins. He has a chance to carve into the support for Lieberman, who drew 11% in the AJC poll and is facing pressure from Abrams and Jewish activists to bow out. Warnock could also pull support away from the other prominent Democrat in the contest, former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, who was pegged at 5% in the poll.

Taking notice are Collins, Loeffler and those who would support them.

Collins focused on Warnock’s support of abortion rights.

“As a proudly pro-life Pastor I’m really curious to have a debate with you and hear defense of abortion from a ‘pro-choice’ Pastor," Collins wrote. "Let’s set it up!”

Loeffler was informally part of a tag team with Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson assailing Warnock as “anti-cop” over comments he’s made following police shootings, particularly in the pulpit.

In a statement, Loeffler said, “It’s anti-cop radicals like Raphael Warnock who are turning our police officers into targets and inciting violence across our country.”

Carlson aired a series of comments Warnock made about police following the fatal shooting in 2014 of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.

Warnock’s campaign responded to Carlson, saying: “Let’s be clear, I’m for appreciating our officers AND for ending police brutality. You can do both.”

AJC poll offers insight beyond Trump vs. Biden

The big headline on the poll The Atlanta Journal-Constitution released this past week was that Republican President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden were locked in a tie at 47% each.

It’s an easy call, since the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1992.

But dig a little deeper and you’ll find plenty of other nuggets of interest. Here are a few:

  • Roughly 30% of white Georgia voters say they intend to vote for Biden, marking a huge shift in the state’s political landscape. In 2016, exit polls showed Democrat Hillary Clinton captured 21% of the state’s white voters and lost Georgia in the presidential contest by 5 percentage points to Republican Donald Trump.

Democrat Jason Carter, a grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, saw similar numbers in his 2014 bid for governor, drawing 23% of white voters while losing to Republican Nathan Deal by 8 percentage points.

The first sign of a turn occurred in 2018, when Democrat Stacey Abrams gained the support of an estimated 25% of white voters in her losing bid for governor against Republican Brian Kemp. That race was settled by a margin of 1.4 percentage points.

  • Divisions were revealed along the lines of race, age and political affiliation when it came to responses to the deaths of George Floyd and other Black people at the hands of police versus the protests that followed.

Here’s how it broke down on a question about what concerned respondents most, deaths like Floyd’s or protests following those police killings that turned violent: 65% of Black voters said they were most concerned about the deaths and 60% of white voters said it was the protests. It should be noted that a vast majority of those protests across the nation produced no violence.

Overall, support for the protests came in strong at 57%. But that dropped to 42% among white respondents to the poll and 24% of those who identified themselves as Republicans.

  • Also sparking division is how we cast our ballots during a pandemic and following the hours-long lines that greeted many voters during the Georgia primary.

Nearly half of the voters who responded to the poll and identified themselves as Republicans said they plan to show up at the polls on Election Day, Nov. 3. Just 19% of the Democrats said you’ll see them at their precincts that day. The biggest share of Democrats, 44%, said they plan to cast absentee ballots, while 33% expect to vote during the three weeks of early voting that begins Oct. 12. About 4% said they did not know.

That partisan split is likely to skew returns on election night. The initial counts of in-person votes could show Republicans with large early leads, with Democrats trying to close the gaps as the tally of mail-in ballots proceeds, possibly for days.

The Republican National Committee and the Georgia Republican Party filed a motion this past week seeking to overturn a federal judge's order to extend the deadline for counting absentee ballots for the Nov. 3 election.
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GOP takes aim at extension of absentee ballot deadline

The Republican National Committee made Georgia the 20th state on its list of where the party is fighting election lawsuits when it appealed a federal judge’s ruling extending the state’s deadline for counting absentee ballots.

The RNC and the Georgia Republican Party filed a motion urging the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn a U.S. District Judge Eleanor Ross’ order requiring the counting of absentee ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and received at election offices within three days afterward.

The ruling invalidated a state law requiring all absentee ballots to be received by county election officials by 7 p.m. on Election Day.

Ross decided Aug. 31 that voters needed a later deadline to return absentee ballots during the coronavirus pandemic, which drove up the number of absentee voters and increased the health risk of in-person voting. Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger quickly appealed.

“Georgia voters have more than ample opportunity to vote,” the RNC stated in its amicus brief supporting a stay of Ross' ruling. “The Election Day deadline is constitutional in normal times, and it is constitutional now as well. Both before COVID-19 and now, the law imposes only minimal burdens.”

Over 1.2 million Georgia voters had requested absentee ballots through Monday, according to state election data.

The RNC motion also argues that the extended absentee ballot deadline would unfairly cover only the 17 counties listed as defendants, which include the state’s most populated areas that tend to vote for Democratic candidates.

Boost in state revenue doesn’t impress independent group

With recent tax collections coming in better than expected, Georgia leaders have painted a relatively rosy picture of the state’s financial position despite an economic plunge brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

A group called Truth in Accounting, however, sees it a bit differently.

The Chicago-based think tank placed Georgia at No. 22 in its annual rankings for fiscal health, and it says more pain could be coming.

It’s all a matter of what you’re looking for.

Truth in Accounting reviews the comprehensive financial reports that states put out annually, and it dinged Georgia mostly for not fully funding promised pension and retiree health care benefits, amounting to a deficit of $2,900 per state taxpayer. (It could be worse, much worse. New Jersey ranked last at $57,900 per taxpayer.)

That’s not unusual. Truth in Accounting said most states don’t fully fund things such as teacher pensions and retiree health benefits.

In all, the group found that 39 states did not have enough money to pay all its bills in 2019, with the biggest unpaid portion in underfunded benefits, such as pensions, producing a total debt of $1.4 trillion. That’s money taxpayers will have to eventually pay, the group said.

It’s also based on numbers from fiscal 2019, before the coronavirus sacked the economy, lowering revenue expectations for states anywhere between $300 billion and $500 billion.

“The bottom line is that the majority of states went into the pandemic in poor fiscal health and they will most likely come out of it even worse,” said Sheila Weinberg, founder and CEO of Truth in Accounting.

The group says the pandemic could cost the state $10 billion in lost revenue, but Georgia has reported mostly positive news after state tax collections improved more than 12% in July and August.

Some budget writers say the gains might be temporary, but $10 billion is still a much higher loss than most state officials and economists have predicted. Most of the $2.8 billion that was in the state reserve at the beginning of the year is still there, and Gov. Brian Kemp has told state agencies they won’t have to cut spending next year like they did this year when the budget took a $2.2 billion hit.

Most of the state’s pensions are not fully funded, but Georgia officials say they’re in better shape than those in most other states. The state’s Teacher Retirement System — which had $81 billion in assets as of June 30 — has recovered after falling in February and March when the stock market tanked. Georgia’s State Health Benefit Plan, which funds health coverage for more than 650,000 teachers, state employees, retirees and their dependents, had about $3 billion in reserve at the end of June.

Georgian moves up the ranks at the White House

Georgia native Brian Jack has to update his business cards.

He was promoted this past week to assistant to the president, the highest rank on the White House staff. He is also the White House political director.

Jack started working for Trump during the 2016 campaign as the chief delegate wrangler.

Candidates, endorsements, etc.:

— Republican U.S. Sen. David Perdue has won the support of the Georgia Fraternal Order of Police in his bid for re-election.

— The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is supporting former Republican U.S. Rep. Karen Handel in her rematch with U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, who beat Handel in 2018 in the 6th Congressional District.

— Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden made Carolyn Bourdeaux his first down-ballot endorsement in Georgia. Bourdeaux is running in the 7th Congressional District against Republican Rich McCormick.