Georgia primary has its favorites, but things could change

Anyone can confirm his or her voter status online through the secretary of state’s website.

With a month to go until Georgia’s presidential primary, the Peach State stage seems set for a heated Republican duel between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz for the hearts of conservatives while Hillary Clinton aims to leverage her support from the state’s heavily black Democratic base to stomp her top rival.

But that script could be rewritten in a heartbeat with the gantlet of early-state votes that begins Monday in Iowa. Struggling also-rans could start dropping out of the crowded Republican field over the next weeks. Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ rise in the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire could embolden more Democrats to spurn Clinton.

And when the spotlight shifts later this month to Georgia, Texas and the sweep of Southern states that vote on March 1, the candidates will find a vastly different, expensive and potentially treacherous set of challenges that could upend the race.

“Right now, it’s clear who has all the momentum. But it all comes down to how Iowa shakes out,” said Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, the most high-profile supporter in Georgia of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s campaign. “And what you’ve seen traditionally is there’s movement in those first early primaries.”

That’s an understatement. Iowa isn’t generally a good predictor of who will win the nomination, at least for the Republicans. Iowans have only picked the eventual Republican nominee two times out of the six GOP caucuses since 1980 that didn’t feature an incumbent candidate.

But the surge of media attention and voter interest could send ripple waves through the March votes and amount to a make-or-break moment for some candidates.

“If Cruz can’t win in Iowa, he can’t win anywhere,” said Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist who has studied the Iowa caucus. “Cruz needs to win Iowa. And I think he needs to win Georgia. And if he loses Iowa, the question becomes: Will anyone emerge as the rival to Trump?”

Cruz, Trump have edge for now

Cruz has staked an early claim on the so-called SEC primary states that vote in March, with bus trips and rallies across the region. But Trump remains atop most of the polls, and his campaign in Georgia is bracing for a drawn-out fight.

“He has the might to get people to the polls,” said John Delves, a Trump supporter who marveled at the dozens of activists who crowded a Marietta library on a recent dreary Tuesday night to hear from the billionaire’s campaign operatives. “People will show up for him. Why else does he get thousands of people to a stadium on a weekday?”

The forces behind Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Bush hope that they can outlast other rivals long enough to consolidate the party’s establishment wing behind them. And Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are betting their presidential bids on strong showings in New Hampshire, which votes Feb. 9, since they have little organization elsewhere.

House Speaker David Ralston, Christie’s top surrogate in Georgia, already has his eye on New Hampshire.

“The winner of Iowa has a poor track record historically. I think you can ask President (Mike) Huckabee and President (Rick) Santorum about that,” Ralston said, referring to the caucus winners in 2008 and 2012, respectively. “I don’t put as much stock in caucuses as I do to people who actually go into a voting booth.”

Clinton strategy depends on South

Clinton supporters are bracing themselves for the prospect that she loses the first two races in Iowa and New Hampshire to a surging Sanders. Her campaign has dispatched a flock of surrogates from the South, including Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, to drum up support from skeptical Iowans one door at a time.

"She is not taking the African-American and Hispanic vote for granted, and (she) hopes that her record will show her commitment," said Tharon Johnson, a Democratic strategist who led Barack Obama's campaign in the South.

Clinton is relying on the South, where she hopes to maximize an already sizable advantage with minority voters over Sanders, as a bulwark of support for her campaign. But the Vermont senator's supporters optimistically point to Obama's surge among black voters after his Iowa win in 2008 as a blueprint.

“If we held the election tomorrow, I don’t think Bernie would cross 30 percent in Georgia,” said Zaid Jilani, a Democratic activist and Sanders supporter. “But if he wins a few early states, then Georgia very quickly becomes very competitive. It would become a real Bernie-versus-Clinton battleground.”

State Rep. LaDawn Jones, Sanders’ co-chairwoman in Georgia, said the campaign has offices in Atlanta and Savannah and is planning to open two more.

“We’ve staffed up, and now we can organize the volunteers who have been stepping up on their own for months,” Jones said. “As the Clinton campaign is now acknowledging, this is now a delegate fight — and that’s what we are preparing for.”

As the race tightens, most analysts predict it will start to thin out by South Carolina’s Feb. 20 GOP vote, setting off a new scramble of a different sort: a race for the operatives and volunteers dedicated to the candidates at the bottom of the pack. For now, though, there’s little hint of any significant movement.

“I made a commitment and I’m staying with it unless he gets out,” Cagle said of Bush. “We’ll go accordingly from there.”