Almost two years of strategizing, posturing and campaigning ends Tuesday when millions of Georgians cast their ballots. The outcome of the bruising battle for Georgia’s open U.S. Senate seat and a bitter fight for the governor’s mansion hinges on a few very big ifs.
Republican Gov. Nathan Deal and GOP Senate nominee David Perdue hope they’ve done enough to galvanize their base of conservative and mostly white supporters who, despite demographic changes, could still land the decisive blow.
Democrats Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn have worked to boost minority turnout and position themselves as pragmatic alternatives to their GOP counterparts. Polls show both threatening to force their races into runoffs, but they face an uphill battle in a conservative state that largely views President Barack Obama unfavorably.
Here’s a look at the five key factors in Tuesday’s contest.
Gender gap
There was a reason Nunn invoked the Paycheck Fairness Act and questioned Perdue over gender discrimination complaints that targeted his former firm in Sunday's final debate. She and Carter are trying to solidify a gender gap that has females disproportionately siding with Democratic candidates. But men remain solidly behind the Republicans.
Black turnout
Democrats have long said a key to any victory is bumping the proportion of black voters to 30 percent of the electorate, and they seem likely to reach the goal. Blacks made up 33 percent of those casting early ballots, and few analysts expect that percentage to drop significantly.
White votes
Democrats have set out to attract 30 percent of the white vote, but an AJC poll has Carter at 22 percent and Nunn hovering around one point higher. The party's once-solid rural base has moved to the GOP, though Democrats hope the kin of once-popular Jimmy Carter and Sam Nunn can bring some former Yellow Dog Democrats back into the fold.
Libertarian effect
In order to avoid a runoff, one candidate must top 50 percent. That could turn the Libertarians into spoilers. Recent polls have shown their support as high as 6 percent, but Republicans are focusing their closing arguments on Libertarians, asking them not to waste their vote on what they say is an ultimately fruitless cause.
The national mood
Republicans appear poised for big gains across the country, amid Obama’s low popularity and a favorable Senate playing field. If Republicans look strong early in the night in places like New Hampshire, it could be the sign of a GOP wave that washes through Georgia, too.
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