The warmer than normal temperatures Georgians have felt so far in 2022 could continue through at least July, say federal projections released Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast calls for an increased chance of above average temperatures across the majority of the contiguous U.S. and Georgia for the next three months.
January to March 2022 has been the 22nd warmest first quarter in Georgia in 128 years of record keeping, with temperatures roughly 2.4 degrees above the 20th century average. Globally, the start of 2022 has been the fifth hottest first quarter on record.
The warmth Georgia has felt this year is not a surprise. Scientists have warned that global temperatures will continue to rise as humans pump more heat-trapping gasses into the atmosphere. Each of the nine years from 2013 to 2021 rank among the 10 hottest years ever recorded globally, NOAA says.
Shorter-term climate trends, like a persistent La Niña pattern, are also driving the possibility for a hot summer in Georgia.
La Niña is triggered by cool temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, but the phenomenon influences weather patterns across the globe. For the southern half of the United States, La Niña generally means drier, warmer conditions.
Earlier this year, NOAA forecasters said they expected the La Niña that developed in 2021 to begin to wane by late spring or early summer. But the outlook released Thursday shows growing odds that the pattern will continue through the summer and perhaps beyond.
La Niña may also trigger more tropical storm activity, said Scott Handel, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA will release its Atlantic hurricane forecast next month ahead of the start of hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and runs through November. However, researchers at Colorado State University are already predicting that 19 named storms will form during the 2022 hurricane season. That’s above the average of 14.4 from 1991 to 2020. Georgia faces a 46% chance for at least one hurricane to come near the state this season, according to the CSU predictions.
Despite the heat that may be headed for the state, climate patterns elsewhere in the U.S. could benefit Georgia farmers.
California, home to the country’s top-ranked agricultural economy, just had its driest January to March on record, NOAA announced. It’s a continuation of the 20-plus year “megadrought” that has left many reservoirs across the Western U.S. near record lows. The epic drought means that some ranchers and growers across the region are already facing cuts to their water supply, NOAA said.
If water shortages limit productivity on California’s vegetable farms, it could benefit Georgia farmers, said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia.
“Reductions in vegetable production there do give an advantage to growers in the Southeast because we should have plenty of fresh, locally-produced crops here that can get to market quickly,” she said.