AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pennsylvania’s two largest cities will hold primaries Tuesday for high-profile municipal offices, while voters across the commonwealth will choose nominees for statewide appellate court judgeships.

The election is a prelude to November, when voters could scramble partisan control of the state Supreme Court. The primaries in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will have added significance because the eventual Democratic nominees will be heavily favored in the general election.

In Philadelphia, Democrat Larry Krasner seeks a third term as district attorney against former Philadelphia Municipal Court Judge Pat Dugan. Dugan stepped down in December midway through his third term to challenge Krasner for the Democratic nomination. He's running as a moderate alternative to Krasner and has far outraised the incumbent.

Republicans have not fielded a candidate for the general election.

Krasner won reelection in 2021 by a wide margin, but the Republican-controlled state House impeached him a year later over his progressive policies. Senate Republicans had prepared to hold an impeachment trial to try to remove Krasner from office, but the state Supreme Court ruled that the trial needed to be held before the end of the 2022 legislative session. Democrats took control of the state House in 2023, making a new impeachment effort all but impossible.

Krasner won the 2021 primary with 67% of the vote. His opponent that year was Carlos Vega, a former prosecutor who sued the city over his 2018 firing by Krasner. Vega also ran as a more moderate alternative to Krasner and carried most of the wards in Northeast Philadelphia and two wards in South Philadelphia. Krasner swept the rest of the city.

In the race for mayor of Pittsburgh, Democratic incumbent Ed Gainey faces a primary challenge from Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor, a former member of the Pittsburgh City Council and son of the late Mayor Bob O’Connor.

The two began the year on roughly even footing in terms of campaign funding, but O’Connor had far outraised and outspent Gainey by the end of March.

Gainey is a former state representative who ousted Democratic Mayor Bill Peduto in the 2021 primary on his way to becoming the city's first Black mayor. He received about 46% of the primary vote, compared with about 39% for Peduto. Gainey carried most of the districts north of the Ohio and Monongahela rivers, excluding the downtown Golden Triangle area and some neighborhoods in the East and the Northwest.

Running for the Republican nomination are Thomas West and 2021 nominee Tony Moreno.

On the statewide ballot, Republicans will hold contested primaries for vacant seats on the state Superior Court and Commonwealth Court. These are the two statewide appellate courts a step below the state Supreme Court. The Democratic candidates for these seats are uncontested in their primaries.

There are no primaries Tuesday for state Supreme Court, but three Democratic justices will face yes-or-no votes in the November general election to serve additional 10-year terms. The court has a 5-2 Democratic majority, and Democrats are concerned that Republicans will mount a campaign to oust the justices who are up for retention this year. If voters decide not to retain a justice for another term, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro would appoint a temporary replacement, subject to confirmation by the Republican-controlled state Senate. An election to fill the seat for a full 10-year term would be held in 2027.

Philadelphia, the state's most populous city, plays a big role in statewide general elections but takes a back seat in statewide Republican primaries, since most voters there are registered Democrats. In the 2023 state Supreme Court primaries, Philadelphia cast more votes than any other county in the Democratic primary, but it didn’t crack the top 10 in the Republican primary. The counties with the most total votes cast in the GOP race were Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, Lancaster, Delaware, Chester, York, Westmoreland, Berks and Cumberland. All but York, Berks and Cumberland also made the list of top 10 counties in the Democratic primary in terms of most votes cast.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Pennsylvania requires an automatic recount for statewide races with a vote margin of 0.5 percentage points or less. For non-statewide races, voters may petition an individual county board of elections or the courts to order a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:

Primary day

Pennsylvania’s state primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in primaries for state Superior Court, Commonwealth Court, Pittsburgh mayor and Philadelphia district attorney. Retention elections for state Supreme Court will be held in November.

Who gets to vote?

Pennsylvania has a closed primary system, which means that registered voters may vote only in their own party’s primary.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Monday, there were about 3.8 million Democrats and 3.6 million Republicans registered in Pennsylvania. Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, has almost a 2-1 ratio Democratic registration advantage. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Philadelphia County by a nearly 6-1 ratio.

More than 57,000 people voted in the 2021 Democratic primary for Pittsburgh mayor, which was about 34% of registered voters at the time. Mail ballots made up about 37% of votes cast. Roughly 224,000 people voted in the Philadelphia municipal primary that year, or about 21% of registered voters. About 28% of the vote was from mail ballots.

Turnout in 2023 state Supreme Court primaries was 12% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 10% in the Republican primary. About 42% of votes in the Democratic primary were mail ballots cast before primary day, compared with about 15% in the Republican primary.

As of Thursday, nearly 390,000 of the 798,000 absentee ballots requested statewide had already been cast.

In Philadelphia, more than 14,000 absentee ballots for the Democratic primary had been cast out of the approximately 64,000 requested. In Pittsburgh, about one-third of the 22,000 Democratic absentee ballots requested had already been cast. About 30% of the roughly 1,900 Republican primary ballots requested in Pittsburgh had been cast.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results just as polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. Vote tabulation paused at 5:49 a.m. ET for roughly 90 minutes with about 96% of the statewide vote counted.

The first results in Allegheny County were available just after 8 p.m. ET and in Philadelphia County at 8:08 p.m. ET. The election night tabulation in Allegheny ended at 12:08 a.m. ET with about 98% of total votes counted and in Philadelphia County at 1:56 a.m. ET with about 93% of total votes counted.