Georgia will get its census numbers this week, the results of which will determine how political power is split in a growing and diverse state and how much federal money Georgia will get for a myriad of social services.
Top of the list awaiting census data is the Georgia Legislature. Members will use the numbers to apportion new state Senate and House districts as well as the U.S. House of Representatives seat Georgia is expected to pick up.
Others anxiously awaiting the census include county leaders whose base salaries are pegged to population numbers, civil rights groups betting on the numbers to give them a bigger political voice, operators of job tax-credit programs and a myriad of social service organizations.
Aid to the elderly or money for the treatment of substance abuse, for example, is based on head counts.
“There are groups that have been prepared for this and are ready to go to work as soon as the numbers come out,” said Thomas Mann, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute.
At stake is $400 billion in federal spending that will be divided among states based on census counts. Those who have seen increases in residents will receive more money than was allocated in 2000, while those who lost population will see the funding fall.
But Terry Jackson, director of the Office of Mapping and Decision Support Systems for the Georgia Department of Community Affairs, said the decennial count will not have the impact on funding mechanisms that it had in the past. The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, which began collecting samples of population data annually in 2005, gives the government more up-to-date information for social service funding.
“The value in doing that is to make decisions quicker,” he said. “Previously, you had to wait a decade for that information.”
According to Brookings, Georgia received $11.3 billion in fiscal 2008 for programs based on ACS estimates. The allocated funds included monies for crime victim assistance, special education, business and industry loans and Appalachian Local Development District Assistance.
Still, some say the decennial numbers remain critical, especially as Congress threatens to cut program funding to reduce the deficit. Labor Department Commissioner Mark Butler said he expects steep cuts to programs like the one designed for worker training under the Workforce Investment Act. Even if Georgia’s expected population increases means more federal money for the program, the gains could be cut, negating any positive effect.
“That may be a wash at best,” he said.
University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said state legislators are both looking forward to the census release and fearing it. The numbers expected to show the population explosion in North Georgia over the past decade will come at the expense of the state’s southern half. He anticipates South Georgia will lose seven or eight state House seats and two or three Senate seats.
“Those in South Georgia will be looking to see if their numbers have stagnated,” he said.
That could be especially important to South Georgia legislators who switched from the Democratic party to the Republican party in the last election, he said. They could be sacrificed if districts are redrawn in favor of long-time Republicans in the region.
Metro Atlanta legislators would not escape unscathed, he said. As the districts are squeezed, they will have to make tough decisions on what voters to let go as the lines of their districts are redrawn.
And Republican leaders, who are in charge of both the House and Senate, will have to be careful to avoid redrawing lines that could be interpreted as disenfranchising minority voters under the Voting Rights Act.
Jerry Gonzalez, executive director of the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials, said he expects the census numbers to support his efforts to make sure the Hispanic community has a seat at the table during redistricting. He said the group worked hard during the census count last year and anticipates Latino numbers to jump significantly in areas such as Gwinnett, Cobb, Hall, Whitfield, Fulton and DeKalb counties.
“We had an unprecedented outreach in Georgia for the census and we want to make sure the community’s interests are respected in the redistricting process,” he said.
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