When Marcia and John Grimsley moved to Johns Creek from Buckhead ten years ago, they identified the schools they wanted their children to attend and built their lives around them.
"We wanted our children to grow up in a community where school, athletics, church and [activities such as] Boy Scouts all were in a fairly small area where there was overlap," Marcia Grimsley said.
But while their family put down roots, the population of the region swelled and churned around them, forcing school districts to shift resources and redraw boundaries. And now the Grimsleys, like thousands of families across metro Atlanta, are experiencing one result: school redistricting.
"It's frustrating to make a lot of decisions -- job commute, life and church, based on important things like where your kids are going to school, and then have that changed," said Grimsley, who is waiting to learn whether her children will be attending different schools.
The story of the region's school-age population between 2000 and 2010 is a story of pervasive, dramatic change. Virtually every major school system had patches of rampant growth and others of steep decline. That crazy-quilt pattern means new schools built and old schools closed, administrators struggling to meet the different needs of new populations, teachers grappling with classrooms in a state of flux, and students and families coping with the disruption of long-term life choices.
The census data add a dimension that school enrollment figures lack: Because the census records race and ethnicity, it reveals that even areas with relatively small changes in the bottom line number may have experienced significant churn, with one group moving out and another moving in. In many cases, that requires districts to respond with, for instance, teachers with particular skills, as well as bricks and mortar.
“As we are predicting future populations, we’re also trying to address the needs of the school district in regards to the classrooms,” said Yngrid Huff, Fulton County Schools executive director of operational planning.
A snapshot of big changes in the past decade as revealed by both census and Georgia Department of Education figures:
- The Atlanta school district saw a net loss of 12,000 residents under the age of 18, with an increase in white children more than equaled by an exodus of black children;
- The Fulton County district gained nearly 23,000 students during the decade and built 28 new schools;
- Cobb County Public Schools became a minority-majority district, and enrollment grew by 12 percent;
- Gwinnett County's under-18 population grew by 40 percent, with the largest increases in the African-American and Hispanic populations;
- DeKalb County saw its school-age population drop off in the southwestern part of the county, with eight school closures expected in 2011.
Decatur City Schools have an enrollment of fewer than 3,000 students, but tracking population changes is a constant for Thomas Van Soelen, the district's assistant superintendent. Census tracts within Decatur recorded fairly strong growth in the under-18 population during the past decade, but not all those children will necessarily attend public schools. Moreover, the district faces special challenges in anticipating enrollment, because the birth rate -- one of the key variables -- is only calculated at the county level.
So Decatur schools developed its own formula, using five-year birth trends and previous enrollment data. Last year, the district's predictions were off by just two students, Van Soelen said.
"We are very aware of our changing demographics, and in this community, we call it gentrification," he said. "We have been steadily growing for last few years. That’s really big for small system."
With the state's largest system, Gwinnett County Public Schools serves more than 160,000 students. Nearly one-third of them -- about 50,000 students -- showed up in the last decade, forcing the district to build 44 new schools and five replacement schools.
Students also came in droves in Cherokee and Forsyth counties. Cherokee's school district grew by almost half, from 26,000 students to 39,000, with growth in all ethnic groups.
Forsyth County Schools' enrollment shot up from 17,000 to 36,000. Even after doubling the number of schools from 17 to 35, the district is in need of three new elementary schools, two new middle schools and one high school, according to spokeswoman Jennifer Caracciolo.
Meanwhile, other counties are consolidating and closing schools whose classrooms are no longer filled.
DeKalb County Schools is planning to close eight schools at the end of this year despite a small overall population gain, said planning director Daniel Drake. He said the system has seen a significant decline in the school-age population in the southwestern part of the county.
"This area has about 14 elementary schools that are half empty. That’s where we are closing five of those schools," he said. "There was a time they were full, maybe 10 to 15 years ago, but there’s been a steady decline."
Atlanta Public Schools lost nearly 9,000 students during the decade, but still saw substantial growth in its northern reaches. It is accommodating that growth by converting North Atlanta High School into a middle school and by building a new high school, said APS spokesman Keith Bromery.
He said APS recently completed a demographic study to project future student enrollment patterns.
"You have to be pretty quick to anticipate that growth and plan for it," Bromery said. "You can't wait for the kids to show up."
Because, as Huff, the Fulton County Schools planner, noted: “Things always change.”
-- Staff writer John Perry contributed to this article.
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