When traffic in Atlanta and much of the rest of the world just about up and disappeared in the second week of March, it was almost an equilateral experience. But the slow return of traffic and increase in volume has happened more in pockets. And while certain trends are taking shape, there is no precedent to finding what the new normal may be, or if and when traffic volume from Q1 of 2020 and earlier will return.
“They’re getting out and driving, but by no means are they driving the amount they did previously. So you’ll see the traffic volumes tick back up, but the miles traveled lagging behind that,” Georgia Department of Transportation Commissioner Russell McMurry told the AJC and WSB.
McMurry does think the acclimation of some to teleworking is one reason tracking the return of gridlock is tough: “Hopefully that is a trend that helps overall congestion in Metro Atlanta.”
The overall number of cars on the roads in Atlanta is increasing, but the car count is rising in different spots. “In Metro Atlanta, the interstate volumes are outpacing the major arterials.” By arterials, McMurry means bigger side roads like Northside Drive, Peachtree (in various forms), and Roswell Road. He said this down trend on the smaller roads is likely because fewer people are actually going back to work.
In fact, both McMurry and his team of engineers, along with the WSB Traffic Team, have all noticed conditions these days being more like Fridays. “Friday” conditions are where traffic is light in the mornings, but bustling in the afternoons when people are leaving work early, heading out to run errands, or beginning weekend travels.
GDOT has some widespread and ambitious plans to add lanes to I-285 and GA-400 and to rebuild the I-20 and I-285 interchanges on both sides of town. The downturn in traffic volume and the fluctuation in revenues (which come largely from fuel taxes and toll lane-use) have not changed the need for those projects. In fact, McMurry said, the changing patterns justify them even more.
“When you hit that 20% less traffic volume was where you started seeing congestion decrease,” McMurry explained. “Well guess what? If you had two lanes on each side of I-285, you increase the capacity by 20% or more, depending on what part of I-285 you’re on.”
So the eventual tolled Express Lanes on I-285 could possibly have the same effect on traffic years down the road as the coronavirus is having right now.
At the height of the shutdown in early April, Georgia saw a 40-50% decrease in traffic volume, McMurry told the GDOT board in a May 21 meeting. But compared to May of 2019, traffic now is down only 25-30% statewide - right in the wheelhouse for making traditional delays disappear.
But if Georgia’s traffic capacity stays at a level similar to this because of both a slow economy and adjusted working patterns, could that affect GDOT’s plans further in the future? “Over the long term we will have to make those decisions and that analysis to see what the new normal is,” McMurry said.
Just a month ago, freight traffic had begun decreasing and that industry was happening upon some hard times. However, McMurry said that industry is back on a rebound. "Even higher than normal is trucks and freight on the interstates both metro and rural."
Big rig traffic is why I-85 northeast of Atlanta, particularly in Gwinnett, did not decline as much as other freeways, because of the large warehouses and freight needs on that corridor, McMurry said.
But as traffic continues to hover at a lighter than “old normal” level, real concerns about transportation revenue persist. State Road and Tollway Authority Director Chris Tomlinson said SRTA’s fiscal year 2020 revenue is set to come in at 28% below what they forecasted, as drivers simply do not need toll lanes to save them time these days. Trip volume has been down as much as 70% in those lanes and the lack of demand keeps the pricing low. The month of April garnered SRTA just 12% of its normal take in those lanes.
And public transit has also seen a major dip.
“During the pandemic, MARTA has experienced rail service declines in the range of 70 to 75% and bus ridership declines of approximately 40 to 50%,” Tomlinson said in a May 18 news conference. Regional commuter buses have been 90% down.
McMurry said that in terms of vehicle miles traveled, Georgia’s pre-COVID number was the most ever. In the previous 2008 recession, Atlanta traffic took seven years to return to its previous levels. So there is a real possibility this recovery — or return to the previous ugly traffic — could take quite a while.
So while the decrease in traffic and for the need in transit is good, there needs to be enough demand to maintain those infrastructures. The roads, trains, and busing are important for different people at different times, and they cannot be sustained or innovated upon without some semblance of the previous revenue levels. Atlanta traffic doesn’t need to return to awful for this to happen. But there needs to be an equilibrium somewhere between “gridlock” and “ghost town” for our systems to sustain.
Doug Turnbull, the PM drive Skycopter anchor for Triple Team Traffic on 95.5 WSB, is the Gridlock Guy. He also writes a traffic blog and hosts a podcast with Smilin' Mark McKay on wsbradio.com. Contact him at Doug.Turnbull@cmg.com.
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