As you might imagine, predicting winter storms can be very difficult for meteorologists. They have to try and determine where the storms will hit, what type of precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc.) might fall, when it might fall and how long it might fall.
With ever-changing models and weather patterns, pinpointing location and severity of winter storms can prove to be a tough task.
As a traffic reporter, I am usually not in the predicting business. Barring any unforeseen incidents (crashes, car fires, etc.) traffic patterns are pretty standard here in Atlanta. Last Tuesday morning though, was a whole different ball game. I had to forecast traffic.
Late Monday night it became apparent that some sort of wintry mix was going to be moving into the metro area. On my night radio show I talked with WSB Radio meteorologist Kirk Mellish and WSB-TV meteorologist Brad Nitz to try and determine what impact the wet weather might have on the morning commute.
The main questions were when would the wet stuff stop, when would temperatures drop below freezing, and would the roads be able to dry before the frigid temps arrived?
“Our temps ranged from 29 in Gainesville to 35 in Atanta to 60 in LaGrange,” WSB-TV Chief Meteorologist Glenn Burns said. “It is virtually impossible to predict where these lines are drawn. On Monday night we knew temps, we knew the wedge would erode due to the passage of the cold front but we also knew temps would never recover.”
In my role as a traffic reporter, I needed to know what the situation would be on the roads during morning drive so I could tell commuters when to and when not to get on the roads. I relied heavily on the weather data.
“It was extremely challenging,” Burns said of the forecast. “We had a wedge of cold air in place. We knew it was a shallow layer of cold air and the air was dry. We also knew when the precip began it would drop to right at freezing or just slightly below.”
When I got on the air at 4 a.m. Tuesday, the rainy mix was still falling, but the temperatures were still above freezing. At that point, after discussing the situation with WSB-TV meteorologist Karen Minton, I advised commuters to stay off the roads until 10 a.m.
From what I was seeing, the roads would begin to ice over between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Whatever moisture that was still on the roads would become ice. After talking with the weather folks, I decided that by 10 a.m., with the sun overhead, the roads would be safe for commuters.
It turned out that by 9:30 a.m. things got markedly better on the roads.
I don’t often have to predict traffic, but when I do it is nice to know that I can lean on top weather forecasters to provide the detailed information that I need.
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