FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The world's sources of critical minerals are increasingly concentrated in just a few countries, most notably China, leaving the global economy vulnerable to supply cutoffs that could disrupt industry and hit consumers with higher prices, a report said Wednesday.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency's report looked at the availability of minerals and metals that may be small in quantity — but large in impact when it comes to shifting the economy away from fossil fuels toward electricity and renewable energy.
It found that for copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements, the average market share of the three top producing countries rose to 86% in 2024 from 82% in 2020.
China is the leading refiner for 19 out of 20 strategic minerals studied in the report, and has an average share of around 75%. Indonesia showed strong growth in nickel, a key component in making steel and batteries for electric vehicles.
The current trend toward export restrictions and trade disputes increases concerns, the IEA said.
“Critical mineral supply chains can be highly vulnerable to supply shocks, be they from extreme weather, a technical failure or trade disruptions,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. ”The impact of a supply shock can be far-reaching, bringing higher prices for consumers and reducing industrial competitiveness.”
Birol cited the energy crisis in Europe after Russia cut off natural gas supplies over the invasion of Ukraine. Another cautionary tale is the global shortage of silicon-based computer chips during and after the pandemic, which disrupted auto production.
“The golden rule of energy security is diversification,” Birol told The Associated Press in an interview. “And it goes beyond energy security, it is also economic security."
Market forces are important in developing new sources but won't be enough. “There is a need for well-designed government policies” in the form of financing and other measures, he said.
China is a massive global source of critical minerals required for a wide range of goods that includes computer chips, robots, electric autos, batteries, drones, and military equipment. It also dominates the refining and processing of many of these critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, graphite and more.
China has placed export limits of many of these key products and tightened controls on others as President Donald Trump's trade negotiations escalate, stifling U.S. industry and the nation's ability to find quick alternatives. Without access to China's significant reserves, U.S. manufacturers have a harder time competing amid mounting global supply tensions.
Trump has made reducing U.S. dependence on foreign critical minerals a core tenet of his first 100 days back in office as part of a national security and economic resilience agenda.
This goes beyond China; the Trump administration finalized a rocky deal with Ukraine granting American access to the nation's vast mineral resources earlier this month.
Trump is also looking to expedite deep-sea mining in international waters, much to the chagrin of environmental groups. He called for a boost in the domestic copper industry in a February executive order alongside other calls for the federal government to fast-track new mine permits; has reviewed a minerals proposal from Congo, a conflict-riddled nation also rich with mineral reserves; and attempted to strong-arm Greenland into providing more of its minerals to the U.S.
The IEA report said that global markets were well supplied at the moment and that prices in general have fallen. It warned however that planned production of copper, which is essential for electric wiring and power grids, would not keep pace with demand and predicted a 30% shortfall by 2030.
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St. John contributed from Detroit, Michigan.
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