LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Executives for UPS, often seen as a bellwether for the economy, said they have seen momentum stall in the United States' recovery.
While UPS chairman and CEO Scott Davis said he did not expect a double-dip recession, he said he anticipates slow growth going forward.
"The odds are higher than they were six months ago, nine months ago," he said Thursday. "There's risk of a double-dip recession, but I think it's unlikely."
UPS Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said he expects the economy to remain troubled through 2012.
"The U.S. is stagnant. We are not seeing an uptick," Kuehn said. "In no way, shape or form are we seeing an improvement in the U.S."
Still, speaking at UPS' first investor conference since 2008, Kuehn said he expects UPS' revenues and profits to grow over the next three to five years. The company's outlook remains unchanged: It expects earnings per share to be between $4.15 and $4.40 for the year.
Davis said the company is stronger than ever, and poised to improve regardless of the speed of the recovery.
"Nearly every plausible scenario continues to see an expansion of global trade," he said. "It offers the best path out of continued economic doldrums."
Trade creates jobs, Davis said, and though he sees long-term improvement, he said legislative uncertainty is making it difficult for businesses to act.
"Our small-business customer base, they're not going to hire people until they have some visibility," Davis said.
UPS will continue to transform, he said, even as the economy remains difficult.
"The last few months, we have seen a bumpy ride," Davis said. "It will likely continue."
Calling government statistics "a lagging indicator," Kuehn said others were overly optimistic about the economy's trajectory in July, at the time of UPS' last earnings call. He said international air freight has slowed more than the company had expected, particularly from Asia, and all measures of global economic confidence have continued to decline.
"2012, for better or for worse, is going to be another below-trend year," he said. "The next 12 months may be a little bumpy."
The Sandy Springs logistics company intends to increase its stock repurchases, to $2.7 billion for the year and $8 billion from 2012 to 2014. Kuehn said that will reduce the number of outstanding shares by 2.5 to 3 percent a year.
Even with a still-troubled economy, UPS said it will continue to invest in technology and facilities.
UPS announced plans to expand its Cologne, Germany, air hub to increase its sorting capacity to 190,000 packages an hour, from 110,000 per hour. The company will spend $200 million on the expansion, which is UPS' largest investment outside the United States in the company's history. It is expected to be completed in 2013.
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