More than a year after Delta Air Lines closed its acquisition of Northwest Airlines, it has yet to solve one of the most vexing issues in the merger — whether flight attendants and ground workers will unionize.

A flurry of recent activity by the National Mediation Board and two unions could significantly alter the story of the merger. It’s likely to be months longer before employees vote on labor representation, prolonging the time it takes to complete the merger. And, in what could be a historic shift for Delta, there’s a significantly higher chance of unionization among the flight attendants and ground workers.

“It’s why the unions are so jubilant about the possibility and why management is concerned,” said Les Hough, an industrial relations consultant and former research director of the Usery Center at Georgia State University.

At mostly non-union Delta, flight attendants and ground workers are not unionized, but at Northwest, they are represented by the Association of Flight Attendants and International Association of Machinists. Employees will vote to decide whether to be represented by a union or not.

Delta had hoped to resolve labor issues over the summer and avoid delays that could dilute the benefits of the deal.

Delta aims to get a single operating certificate for the combined company from the Federal Aviation Administration by the end of this year, but it will be limited in how much it can combine work forces until labor issues are resolved. That is not likely to happen until next year.

The rule change was proposed to the Mediation Board by the AFL-CIO’s Transportation Trades Department earlier this year.

The employees are still on separate seniority lists, work rules and pay scales. Until the labor issues are resolved, the company will have to keep Delta and Northwest flight attendants working on separate flights.

“We’ll work around what we have to,” Delta chief executive Richard Anderson told employees in a message.

After years of union campaigns, many employees at Delta and Northwest — anti-union and pro-union — are anxious to get the labor representation elections done with.

Timothy Nuffer, a Northwest ramp worker from Memphis and an organizer for the International Association of Machinists, has been living out of a Hilton Garden Inn since May working on the union’s Delta campaign in Atlanta.

“We all want to go home,” Nuffer said. “I want this to be over too, but we have to do it in the right way. The rule change that takes place — it’s only going to be in our favor.”

The chances of a major sweep of unionization were not nearly as large as they are now.

“The assumption was once the merger occurred, because the Northwest unit was smaller, that the merged company would end up with no unionization” of ground workers and flight attendants, said airline analyst Vaughn Cordle. “That was a good assumption based on the record of the employees fighting off unionization in the past. The rule change changes everything.”

A switch in the election rules to a “yes-no” vote as proposed would mean that instead of needing approval from a majority of those eligible to vote in order to unionize, unions would only need a majority of those who actually vote — which generally is a far smaller number.

As many as 20,500 flight attendants will be eligible to vote, including about 14,000 from Delta and 6,500 from Northwest. For the International Association of Machinists elections, nearly 34,000 employees are estimated to be eligible to vote, including nearly 23,000 from Delta and 11,000 from Northwest.

Behind the move at the Mediation Board is the political change in the White House, which is now playing a key part in the labor chapter of Delta’s merger. A nomination by President Barack Obama to the National Mediation Board shifted the political balance there to a more labor-friendly majority.

The Mediation Board, which governs labor relations at airlines and railroads, for decades has had unique rules for labor representation elections that require approval from the majority of eligible voters for unionization. That was aimed at increasing stability in airlines and railroads as critical parts of the nation’s transportation and commerce infrastructure.

But Mediation Board members Harry Hoglander and Linda Puchala wrote in the proposed rule change that the current rules were adopted in an era when “widespread company unionism undermined collective bargaining and incited labor unrest,” and said labor relations in air and rail have progressed since then.

The rule change “certainly increases the odds” of unionization, Hough said, but “it doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion.”

Delta would likely need to change its strategy to fight against unionization. In past union elections, the company has encouraged employees to “give a rip” and rip up their ballots to vote against unionization. But under the proposed new rules, anti-union employees would need to cast ballots against unionization.

“The rhetoric will definitely change,” Hough said.

Historically, Delta has paid its employees above-market wages, a strategy that helped it ward off most unionization. But much of that changed during Delta’s bankruptcy.

Among airline employees across the industry, “there’s a lot of frustration because of the wage cuts, benefit cuts, and the fact that they have to work more now ... just to keep up with where they were several years back,” Cordle said. “They’re frustrated and they’re unhappy. ... It’s a frustration industry-wide at all the major network airlines.”

A rule change would also mean another key Delta employee group — mechanics — could be up for a union representation election further down the road.

Northwest mechanics were represented by the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association union, but due to a strike several years ago, their membership had dwindled, and the union was decertified in the merger with Delta. The new rules, however, could make it easier for a union to organize the mechanics at the combined Delta.

If flight attendants or ground workers successfully unionize, Delta’s labor costs are likely to increase, Cordle said.

And, “history has shown that there’s an us-against-them mentality that develops,” Cordle said. “It’s a big cultural change.”

UNION LABOR REPRESENTATION

Delta and Northwest

Pilots: Air Line Pilots Association

Flight dispatchers: Professional Airline Flight Control Association

Northwest

Baggage handlers, passenger service, clerical and others: International Association of Machinists

Flight attendants: Association of Flight Attendants

Aircraft maintenance technicians: Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association

Meteorologists: Northwest Airlines Meteorology Association

Technical writers and planners: Aircraft Technical Support Association

Note: Northwest unions decertified in merger with Delta

AirTran

Pilots: Air Line Pilots Association

Flight Attendants: Association of Flight Attendants

Aircraft maintenance technicians, technical training instructors, stock clerks, ground service mechanics: International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Dispatchers: Transport Workers Union

American

Pilots: Allied Pilots Association

Flight attendants: Association of Professional Flight Attendants

Aircraft maintenance technicians, fleet service: Transport Workers Union

Continental

Pilots: Air Line Pilots Association

Flight attendants: International Association of Machinists

Dispatchers: Transport Workers Union

Aircraft maintenance technicians: International Brotherhood of Teamsters

United

Pilots: Air Line Pilots Association

Flight attendants: Association of Flight Attendants

Aircraft maintenance technicians: International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Ramp / instructors /fleet technical instructors: International Association of Machinists

Engineers: International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers

Dispatchers: Professional Airline Flight Control Association

US Airways

Pilots: US Airline Pilots Association

Flight attendants: Association of Flight Attendants

Passenger service: Communications Workers of America, International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Fleet service, aircraft maintenance technicians and related, maintenance training instructors: International Association of Machinists

Dispatchers, flight simulator engineers, flight crew training instructors: Transport Workers Union

Source: Staff research

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