Atlanta’s average home price trajectory
From peak in 2007 to bottom, 2012: Down 39.5 percent
From 2012 to current level: 52.5 perent
Current level compared to peak in 2007: Down 7.7 percent
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
The Atlanta housing market’s rapid price rebound has leveled off.
Metro Atlanta homes, on average, in July were up 0.8 percent from June and 5.8 percent over the past year – a little more than the average for the nation’s 20 largest metros, according to the index calculated by S&P/Case-Shiller and released Tuesday.
But Atlanta’s price increase was actually weaker than it usually is during the summer and some experts have started to wonder if the price recovery has topped out.
“The beginning of a change is always hard to identify,” said Charlotte Sears, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Atlanta. “But we have seen in the last couple of months, a little bit of a slowdown. We do expect a seasonal slowing, but we think there may be a little more than seasonality at work.”
When Case-Shiller’s data are adjusted for seasonal patterns, they look weaker: In that light, Atlanta prices dipped 0.2 percent during the month.
And Coldwell data, which is more up-to-date, show median and average sale prices down from June through August, as well as a dip in the number of homes sold. Another key measure shows fewer sellers getting the price they ask for, Sears said. “When you have enough arrows heading in the same direction, there may be a trend.”
Rising since 2012
After more than four years of retreat, Atlanta prices started rising in early 2012. For a time, the rebound was robust – at least in terms of prices, which were climbing at a double-digit annual pace.
But the recovery was uneven. On the supply side, the number of homes for sale was limited.
Now, the number of listings has grown while demand has ebbed, Sears said. “The market was way out of whack and now it is becoming more balanced.”
The immense damage done by the collapse of the housing bubble has held back recovery in some areas – especially on the south side of metro Atlanta. And on the demand side, a shortfall in first-time homebuyers has undermined demand.
“To many observers, the housing market is sending mixed messages right now,” said Svenja Gudell, chief economist of Zillow, a Seattle-based real estate research firm. “Median home values overall continue to grow at a modest clip, but many individual homes have actually lost value in the past year.”
Prices of lower-priced homes grew at a faster pace than any other Atlanta tier, said said Selma Hepp, chief economist for California-based Trulia: 12 percent, “in home prices reflects the exceedingly strong demand in lower price segments.”
But everything comes down to a buyer’s having the money for a purchase – or getting a loan.
Money available
A decade ago, lenders were lenient – sometimes criminally so – in requiring borrowers to prove they had the income need to make mortgage payments. But after the market’s crash, many lenders went under. Those that survived were often so cautious about a borrower’s credit credentials that they wouldn’t make the loan at all.
But the money is available now, said Tom Booth, mortgage group sales manager at Fifth Third Bank.
“Good credit is still important and so is income that you can document,” he said. “But it’s loosened a little. Maybe the pendulum swung too far the other way. I think there are more and more opportunities for first time home buyers.”
Compared to the overall performance of the nation’s 20 largest metros, Atlanta was slightly above average, according to Case-Shiller. The top 20 saw an average increase of 0.6 percent for the month and 5.0 percent from a year ago.
Despite rising 52.4 percent in the past three years, Atlanta’s average price is still about 8 percent below the high of mid-2007, according to Case-Shiller.
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