Donald Trump takes office today amidst a mix of economic contradictions – not least about the expectations of people who have a lot riding on his performance: jobseekers.
The official unemployment rate is low, but even by that measure, we're talking about more than 7.5 million people looking for work. Moreover, there are millions of others who are not counted, people who would like a job, but have stopped looking.
And among job-seekers, on Day One of the Trump Era, there is uncertainty: Whether they voted for him or not, it is simply not clear to a majority of jobseekers that Trump can do what he has promised to do, according to a recent survey of job seekers.
The majority is uncertain of his ability to deliver.
According to survey results released by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., 53 percent of respondents said they were not sure if the incoming president will benefit job seekers.
Nearly 30 percent were sure that the new president will benefit job seekers. About 18 percent felt that the new administration will be of no benefit.
"President-elect Trump has provided many clues in the form of tweets and spur-of-the-moment remarks to the media. However, it remains entirely unclear as to which of these talking points will actually become policy," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which conducted the survey.
RELATED: Your guide to all things inauguration day
RELATED: Trump's cabinet CEO-centric — more than Reagan or Bush (or Obama, natch)
Perhaps individual attitudes mirror the economic uncertainty.
Trump inherits an economy that is growing and solid by most economic measures, but troubled and unbalanced by others. Looks good on the unemployment rate, but not as good on participation rate or income growth among blue collar and middle class households.
Not everyone has benefitted equally from the long, slow recovery.
And while there are many reasons for his victory, the experts are fond of saying elections are something of a referendum on the status quo. And so, whatever the nation’s strengths, Trump rode into the presidency on the support of millions of people who want something different. And while he promised many things, economic change was something of a theme.
But wait, some people ask: Aren't we much better off than we were? Don't most people who want jobs have them? Haven't we come a long way since eight years ago when the economy was hemorrhaging more than a half-million jobs a month?
The argument about what drove the election has been, let us say, energetic. Was it about social status and mobility? Was it just about race? How about race and class? Or maybe geography? Was it distrust of Trump's opponent? Was it simply about a stew of issues of which economics was not that crucial at all?
Now, several analysts have noted that his support wasn't necessarily among those who are worst off economically, that it broke down on other lines. But he was also much more likely to win areas where there was economic anxiety – whether or not those areas were worse off than others.
Anxiety, of course, is not about strictly about what you have. It's about what you fear. And you can have a job and be afraid of losing it. You can be getting by and still be pained by what you lost in the recession.
And despite what they might have told you in Econ 101, economics is largely about psychology.
In recent years, the field once utterly dominated by math-centric calculations has increasingly come to see human behavior and human thinking to be important, even when it seems economically illogical.
Heck, they even gave a Nobel Prize in economics to a psychologist.
So today, Day One of the Trump administration, it seems fair to note the psychology of expectations: What do people expect the new president to do about the economy?
Challenger notes that hope sometimes is tempered by realism.
"Certainly, job seekers might have gained some confidence in a Trump administration after he stepped in and pressured Carrier and Ford to keep jobs here in America," Challenger said. "However, the reality is that once Trump becomes president, he cannot simply go from company to company saving jobs. Most job seekers understand this."
It may be, Challenger suggested, that many people voted for Trump because they liked his attitude, but not because they thought he could truly do everything he promised. And it may be that while they want to be president, they think they cannot rely – or do not want to rely – on getting help from Trump.
“It’s up to me,” said one respondent told Challenger’s callers. “I create my own destiny.”
_____________________
HOW JOBSEEKERS SEE TRUMP
Do you think President Trump will benefit job seekers?
Yes ……….. 29%
No ……….. 18%
Not sure … 53%
Are you unemployed?
……2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Yes 63% 44% 71% 68% 68% 77%
No 37% 56% 29% 32% 32% 23%
If employed, are you underemployed?
……..2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Yes 38% 61% 61% 44% 38%
No 62% 39% 39% 56% 62%
If unemployed, how long have you been out of work
……………………2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
1 – 3 Months 29% 53% 25% 24% 23% 20%
4 – 6 Months 25% 12% 26% 22% 18% 17%
7 – 9 Months 7% 3% 9% 9% 9% 5%
10 – 12 Months 5% 3% 7% 10% 11% 9%
More than a year 34% 28% 47% 36% 39% 50%
Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
About the Author
