Falling gas prices likely to drop even more

This year’s 46 cents-a-gallon drop compares with a 23-cent decline during that same period last year.

Gas Buddy is predicting average prices dropping below $3 a gallon within a few months. And while that marker is significant, so is the trajectory: Crude oil is the main driver of gas prices, and recent drops in the price of crude have not yet made it through the pipeline to the pump.

“Even if the crude oil price flattened out where they are now, I think we’d still see gas prices decline,” Laskoski said.

Atlanta has not seen average prices below $3 a gallon since early 2011. Gas prices have not been below $2.75 a gallon since 2010.

The continuing slide is especially welcome in Atlanta where drives can be long and roads are often congested.

“I am always in my car,” said Tanesha Graham, 37, of Lawrenceville.

She carpools when she can, but it’s not often. She commutes to a job in Buford, but works as a part-time instructor in other, more distant places. And she drives her athlete daughter to various practices and games.

Twice a week she fuels up her Jeep Cherokee – which runs about $60 a fill-up. If that tab were to shrink a few bucks a tank, the impact would be nice, if not dramatic, she said. “I am more likely to splurge a little at a restaurant if I’ve got a little more in my purse.”

The steep decline in gas prices can be chalked up to several factors:

— Refineries have switched from more expensive summer blends to those for winter.

— The dollar has grown stronger in recent months, which effectively makes oil cheaper.

— Global demand is weak.

— Supply is strong. Libya has started pumping again and the world’s second-largest producer, Saudi Arabia, is apparently going full-tilt.

Moreover, the United States is producing more oil than it has since the late 1980s, according to the Energy Information Administration.

And while the so-called Islamic State has taken control of some oil facilities, American military action reassured the markets and removed the “risk premium” in the price, said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State.

At home, too, demand is softened by the proliferation of fuel-stingy cars and more productive factories, he said. “People have become more efficient.”

Not everyone wins with low prices. If it leads to more driving and more gas use, it would not be good for air quality. And lower prices could take the air out of the boom in the oil-producing parts of the country.

If prices fall too much, getting the oil will cost more than it’s worth, so some projects would be postponed or abandoned and some equipment would not be purchased, Dhawan said.

“So that pop you get from consumers will be negated by a fall in growth,” he said.

The five largest oil-producing states have added more than 1.35 million jobs in the past five years – roughly 32 percent of private-sector growth.

But Atlantans are consumers, not producers: Metro Atlanta uses an average of about 12 million gallons of gas a day, according to the EIA.

And as of early Wednesday afternoon, at least 15 stations in metro Atlanta were selling regular gasoline for less than $3 a gallon.

Bonnie Stewart, 59, has noticed.

She lives in Duluth, driving to a job in Roswell in her 2009 Honda CRV, filling up roughly every 10 days. Lately it’s cost about $47 or $48 to fill the tank.

Many economists say consumers react differently to price spikes than they do to price drops. They like lower prices, but may not change their behavior – at least if they are not sure prices will stay low.

When prices soar, however, drivers tend to combine different errands on the same trip, join carpools, shop aggressively for lower prices and balk at longer trips.

Stewart remembers 2008 when gas prices crested past $4 a gallon.

“I had a friend I used to visit in Dahlonega,” she said. “When the price was that high I didn’t go as often.”