Columbia, S.C. - Hillary Clinton seems on the verge of a big win Saturday in South Carolina, the first Democratic primary in the South and the first contest with a large chunk of black voters that mirrors Georgia's electorate.
A win in South Carolina over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would be redemption for Clinton after her nearly 30-point loss to Barack Obama in 2008 here set the stage for his eventual nomination.
Here are a few things to watch in South Carolina, where polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.:
How big does Clinton win? The former secretary of state is looking to run up the score in South Carolina – and send a signal to voters in Georgia and other Southern states that vote Tuesday. An average of recent polls shows she has a roughly 27 point lead over Sanders, who has relied on a base of mostly white voters. At a rally Friday night in Columbia, the Clintons were optimistic. "You can change the future of America by voting for Hillary," Bill Clinton told the roaring crowd.
Does Sanders show any momentum with black voters? Sanders hopes to cut Clinton's lead in South Carolina to single-digits but he won't be able to do that without more African-American support. He could try to spin a closer-than-expected defeat into a positive if he gets more traction with black voters, who hold the key to primaries Tuesday in Georgia, Alabama and other Southern states. But his schedule speaks volumes about his strategy: Sanders won't hold a primary night event in Georgia, instead heading to a rally in friendlier terrain in Minnesota.
How will turnout factor into the race? Turnout soared in 2008, when more than 530,000 ballots were cast in Obama's decisive victory over Clinton. South Carolina election officials expect a far lower turnout this year, though they predict at least 350,000 voters to cast ballots. With some polls showing as many as 20 percent of voters still undecided, a surge of turnout could help Sanders, who has relied on first-time voters attracted to his calls for a political revolution.
How does South Carolina change the delegate math? Some 53 delegates hang in the balance on Saturday, and Clinton could sweep them all if she has a good night. The top statewide finisher is awarded 18 delegates and the other 35 are awarded proportionally based on voting in the state's seven congressional districts. The state also has six superdelegates – party elites who can choose whichever candidate they want. Four are committed to Clinton and two are neutral. Clinton has a commanding lead over Sanders in the delegate race with the help of superdelegates, but the two are tied at 51 apiece when not counting them.
How will South Carolina impact Georgia and other March 1 states? Georgia Democrats followed South Carolina's lead in abandoning Clinton for Obama in 2008. And it's a safe bet that a sweeping Clinton victory Saturday will bode well for her in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee Texas and Virginia on Tuesday. But Sanders is targeting a sweep of smaller states that cast ballots the same day - including Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont –in hopes of winning more states, though likely less delegates, than Clinton on Tuesday.
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