The website FiveThirtyEight is predicting that Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump will take the cake in next week’s Georgia primaries.
Nate Silver’s site, which specializes in analyzing opinion polls, estimates that Trump is likely to win the GOP primary on Tuesday, but his lead over his opponents depends on what you’re taking into account.
When looking at only state opinion polls, FiveThirtyEight predicts Trump has a 70 percent chance of winning, compared to Marco Rubio’s 18 percent and Ted Cruz’s 11 percent. But when also incorporating the results of national polls and endorsements, Trump’s odds sink to 47 percent. That puts him neck-and-neck with Rubio, who by that metric stands at 44 percent.
By both metrics, the site predicts Trump will likely get about one-third of the GOP votes cast. Here are the full estimates for the GOP.
The site also predicts that Clinton has a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary when taking into account endorsements, state and national polls. It estimates that Clinton is expected to win about three-quarters of the votes cast by Democrats. You can read more about their estimates for the Democrats here.
Weighted heavily in Five Thirty Eight's calculations were the Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone polls conducted earlier this week, which we reported on here.
Hat tip to GeorgiaPol for flagging.
About the Author
