Back in April, Danby Swanson had ugly numbers against sliders . The mitigating factors were a small sample size overall (219 plate appearances at the time) and for sliders faced (220).
Well it’s mid-July, and the numbers are still ugly for Swanson in 488 career plate appearances while facing 459 sliders. Swanson’s offensive production overall has been poor: .220 average (league average this year is .255), .297 on-base percentage (.324) and 58 Weighted Runs Created Plus (96). As for his results against sliders . . .
Sources: FanGraphs, MLB Statcast
The context has changed for Swanson. He was struggling to hit in April but that's when the Braves were starting what most everyone figured would be a bridge year. They were fine with letting their top prospect take his lumps.
Now, though, the Braves are hovering around .500 and in the wild card race. Manager Brian Snitker has been a Swanson booster even as he's struggled to produce but now he’s relegated Swanson to a part-time role with Johan Camargo. (Not coincidentally, Snitker's contract ends after this season.)
Swanson may yet become a good big league ballplayer. The sample sizes are still small (but quickly becoming more significant) so scouts know more than the numbers why Swanson is struggling. But the numbers suggest that sliders are giving him trouble more than anything else, and that's why he's seen a higher percentage of sliders than any hitter in the majors with at least 300 plate appearances.
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It’s not that Swanson’s plate discipline is bad. It's actually good for a young player.
Swanson has struck out during 23 percent of his plate appearances; the league average is 21.6 percent. Swanson has walked on 9.8 percent of his PAs; the league average is 8.0 percent. Swanson’s walkout-to-strikeout ratio is .40; the league average is .43. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Swanson has swung at 28.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone; the league average this season is 29.7 percent.
It’s also not the case that Swanson doesn’t hit the ball hard when he makes contact. His average exit velocity on all balls in play is 87.6 mph. The league average exit velocity on balls in play is 86.8 mph.
The big trouble areas for Swanson are the high percentage of groundballs he hits (49.5 percent vs. 44.3 percent league average) and low percentage of fly balls (28.4 percent vs. 35.5). His average launch angle is just 7.9 degrees, compared to the league average of about 11. Swanson is pounding lots of pitches into the ground.
Swanson has experienced better luck on batted balls since mid-April, with his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) rising from .173 to .272 (.299 is the league average). But Swanson hasn’t been better against sliders and his results have improved only somewhat.
I don’t know for sure if adjusting to sliders will mean better production for Swanson. The Braves should hope so because it's a simple fix. That's not the same as an easy fix but it's better for Swanson to have that problem than be an undisciplined free swinger who doesn't hit the ball hard.
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