Last week I called the Rams "plain bad" but, after watching the Falcons clown them Sunday in L.A., it turns out I was too kind. You'll never hear me downplay a blowout road win in the NFL no matter the opponent—it's not easy to do, and the Falcons have done it three times now this season, this time without Julio Jones. Plus, the Falcons emphatically shook off the bad mojo from that loss to KC.
But no doubt the Rams are awful. Their four (early) victories say a lot about the mediocre state of NFL football. The down state of the league also is one good reason to believe the Falcons (8-5) can win the NFC. The Falcons have some big flaws but which NFC contender doesn’t beyond (maybe) the Cowboys (11-2)?
The Falcons have faced lots of good defensive teams and rarely has their offense been less than effective and sometimes it has been fantastic. Their defense is improving in spite of injuries. The Falcons are still tied atop the NFC South with the Bucs (8-5) but own the tiebreaker over them, and Atlanta's closing schedule is relatively easy.
So why not the Falcons as NFC champs?
NFC playoff picture
- Cowboys (11-2)+*
- Lions (9-4)+
- Giants (9-4)
- Seahawks (8-4-1)+
- Falcons (8-5)+
- Buccaneers (8-5)
- Redskins (7-5-1)
- Vikings (7-6)
- Packers (7-6)
* clinched playoffs
+lead division
Football Outsiders rated the Falcons the best team in the league two weeks ago, then dropped them to No. 4 after the close loss to the Chiefs. But here's what FO's Aaron Schatz had to say about that Defense-adjusted Value Over Average update before this week's games:
"The Year of No Great Teams has reached another pinnacle... or is it more appropriate to say nadir? New England has 19.9% DVOA and Dallas has 19.7% DVOA, making this the first time in the history of the DVOA ratings that the No. 1 team has been below 20%. . . . .(T)he top of our ratings are packed together extremely tight. The top five teams are separated by just 3.3% DVOA, and the top nine teams are separated by just 9.0% DVOA."
There is no juggernaut in the NFC, especially not after the Cowboys lost to the Giants Sunday night for the second time this season.
Seattle doesn't want to go on the road in the playoffs because, unlike the Falcons, its offense doesn’t travel. The Seahawks (8-4-1) entered this week No. 3 in DVOA before flopping Sunday in Green Bay. The Seahawks have an easy closing schedule so chances are they would be the hosts vs. the Falcons in the postseason. But we’ve already seen the Falcons go to Seattle and give them a game.
The Lions (9-4) keep winning but I still say they are not very good, just very lucky Detroit was ranked No. 26 in DVOA against a bad schedule before squeaking past the Bears Sunday for an NFL-record eighth comeback win in the fourth quarter.
Respect to the Giants (9-4) for the tough W against the Cowboys Sunday night. The defense is for real. But the Giants still have that boom-or-bust offense with the boom-or-bust QB.
The Buccaneers (8-5) ranked just No. 20 in DVOA before outlasting the Saints at home Sunday. In two weeks the Bucs go to Dallas, which still will have something to play for then. I see Tampa Bay’s magic wearing off soon.
The Cowboys are legit. Their defense can be shaky, though, especially against the pass, and who among NFC contenders has a better air attack than the Falcons? The Falcons can keep up with the Cowboys in a shootout. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is a special rookie but he’s still a rookie.
Among the top six in the NFC, I’d put the Falcons even with the Seahawks and above everyone but the Cowboys, who are a notch above. In a year like this, though, that gap isn’t really that big and so I ask again: Why not the Falcons as NFC champs?
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