It’s the week coming off a collapse in the season coming off a collapse. So naturally, many are seeking a scapegoat.
Matt Ryan, the NFL's best quarterback and MVP in 2016, already has almost as many interceptions (six) in five games as he did last season (seven) in 16 games. Julio Jones, arguably the best receiver in the league, has zero touchdowns and has been targeted only once in the red zone, sending Fantasy League players into psychotic rages. On defense, the Falcons rank last in takeaways per game (0.6) and allowing 4.3 yards per carry (10th worst), along with a sporadic pass rush.
Some simple analysis from Jones: “On no side of the ball have we played our best ball yet.”
The Falcons are 3-2. Remember not long ago when 3-2 was viewed as, “Not bad,” as opposed to, “Is that a sinkhole ahead”?
True, the Falcons were 4-1 at this time a year ago. But they lost their next two games to drop to 4-3. They didn’t get going until Week 8, when a win over Green Bay sparked a 9-2 run to the Super Bowl.
So, yes, there’s plenty of time to get this thing going. But the biggest questions going into Sunday’s game against New England – as fandom crashes at the intersection of Panic Avenue and Flashback Lane – center on the offense. It hasn’t been awful. Really, it hasn't. The Falcons rank fifth in yards per game and 12th in scoring. Not at 2016 levels, but not the Browns, either.
But the eye test screams they're not nearly there, yet, and for as much as some spinsters in the building want to put it this on the defense’s lack of takeaways or needing "more opportunities" -- which, yes, are factors -- the production just doesn’t equate to a year ago. For example:
• They’re averaging close to the same number of offensive snaps per game (61.2) as they did a year ago (62.2).
• They’re averaging close to the same number of yards per play (6.2) as a year ago (6.7).
• Their third-down conversion rate (46 percent) is actually better (42 percent) than in 2016.
However ...
• The offense is averaging 24.2 points and 2.4 touchdowns, compared with only 33.8 points and 3.6 touchdowns.
• Ryan ranked second last season in completions of 20 yards or more with 69 (4.3 per game). This season, he has only 14 (2.8 per game).
There probably is a little more heat on new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian than Ryan, who had an MVP season under Kyle Shanahan. From a fan and sometimes media perspective, it's easier to blame the new guy.
Five games represent one-third of the season, but it's not a huge sample size. Also, the two losses came to teams, Buffalo and Miami, that rank first and third, respectively, in points per game allowed. Sarkisian had never called plays in the NFL before this season, but he’s a good offensive coordinator who appears to have connected with the players.
That said, he knows improvement is needed. He's not running from that.
“When you go back and you try to analyze each game, we’ve had some missed opportunities,” he said. “Really, the last two weeks we’ve had the ball with a chance to go win the game and we didn’t get it done. That’s the reality of the situation. Our yards per play are good. Our third-down conversions are good. We’re scoring in the red zone. But when we have a chance to win the game, regardless of how many opportunities we’re going to get, we need to take advantage of that opportunity.”
Extenuating circumstances? Sure. Ryan had three turnovers against Buffalo: a fumble returned for a touchdown and two interceptions, one off the hands of Nick Williams and the other a deep ball intended for Taylor Gabriel, who lost a jump ball with a defender. In last week’s loss to Miami, when the Falcons blew a 17-0 lead, they ran only 58 plays, including 23 on four possessions in the second half. However, two of those four possessions were three-and-out. The only extended drive was the last-minute one that ended when tight end Austin Hooper failed to secure a catch at Miami's 6-yard line, leading to an interception. The Falcons were already in game-tying field-goal range.
It took until Shanahan’s second season before the offense clicked. Is it possible the same timeline will be applicable under Sarkisian?
“No. I don’t think so,” Ryan said. “We obviously haven’t played as well as we’re capable of in five games, but we’re certainly close and we’ve done a lot of good things. It comes down to execution from a player’s standpoint. We have high expectations of ourselves, and we’re closer to playing good ball.”
He said the communication between him and Sarkisian has been good and they’re “on the same page.”
“It comes down to us players making plays,” he said. “Sark’s been good. Honestly, I think he’s put us in good positions through five games. I think he’s got a better understanding now, having gone through game situations.”
"At New England," can seem daunting, but this could be a good week to get better. New England’s defense has been dreadful. The Patriots rank last in yards (440.7) and passing yards allowed (324.8), third worst in points allowed (26.5) and quarterback efficiency rating and worst in touchdown passes against (14 in six games).
Jones may be the least diva-like receiver in the league. It follows that he’s not concerned about his red zone opportunities or lack of touchdowns, as long as somebody else is scoring and the team is winning.
The bar was set high last season. Jones bristled a little when asked if people are expecting too much as an encore.
“We’re not worrying about external factors or (what) people (are) thinking,” he said. “We know who we are and what we have to do. We have to keep working. Point blank. Period. We can’t go out here and try to satisfy other people. We have to stay tight in here because once you let outside interference get into the locker room it becomes a problem. Then you’re not tight. Then you’re blaming people.”
One win would ease a lot of concerns. Especially this week.
EARLIER: Weekend Predictions: Because it makes no sense, Falcons beat Pats
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