What Do The PA Polls Tell Us?

One of the most frustrating parts of this campaign has been trying to figure out what in the heck the polls mean in the Democratic race.

We have all seen how the polls - the election day exit polls and the regular surveys - have both been off by large amounts when compared to the final results.

So how do I read this race?  I guess I have to look back on what has happened so far in Election 2008.

And I have to trust my gut.

There have been several examples of where Obama has drawn huge crowds, spent more money and bought more radio and TV ad time - but he doesn't win the state.

It happened in New Hampshire first.  None of us saw it coming.  But I remember on Primary Day being surprised by the number of Hillary people on street corners waving signs.

I think back to Super Tuesday, when Clinton won California, after some polls showed Obama up by 8 points.

I think of Ohio, where Hillary had a big lead, the race closed, and some polls showed Obama drawing even or slightly ahead.

And then Clinton won by 10 points.

I just wonder if Pennsylvania is going to be the same.

While I have raised questions about the polling of John Zogby, his latest tracking polls in Pennsylvania have showed a move toward Clinton.

"If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it," Zogby said.

Then there was this lead about a poll by McClatchy Newspapers:

"Hillary Clinton leads among bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta that is helping her hold an edge over rival Barack Obama heading into Tuesday's pivotal primary there."

Other polls had hopeful news in them for Obama, showing him cutting into Clinton's lead and limiting her advantage to around 6 points.

"I'm not predicting a win," said Obama on KDKA in Pittsburgh.  "I'm predicting it's going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect."

Obama has had several chances to knock Clinton out of this race, but each time he has come up short.

This time he has kept the gas pedal down, running tougher ads and going after Clinton directly on the stump.

Will that make a difference here in Pennsylvania?

"I've come to the conclusion that PA is a better state for Hillary than Ohio," my father wrote me in an email.  

My father and I have spent many a good (and bad) day at the horse races and after years of charting races together, we often come to the same conclusions without even tipping our hand to each other.

"And, of course," my father added, "there still is the "silent" vote."