The Senate Battle

President Obama will do events today for two Democratic Senators who are in tough races in Election 2010, as he visits both California and Nevada.

The day begins with a rally on the campus of the University of Southern California for Sen. Barbara Boxer, and wraps up with a fundraiser for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

To show you how screwy this election is, the folks at Real Clear Politics list 8 Senate races as toss-ups right now:

CA: Boxer (D), CO: Bennet (D), IL: Open (D), KY: Open (R), NV: Reid (D), PA: Open (D), WA: Murray (D), WV: Open (D).

One of these things is not like the other - you get a cookie if you picked Kentucky, as all of the other toss-ups are held by Democrats.

What about recent polls that have brought good news for Democrats, like Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania.

"There certainly is some evidence of some tightening," said political analyst John Fortier.  "I'm a little skeptical there's a big move in that."

In other words, any Democratic celebrations will be short lived in Fortier's opinion.

Of those toss-ups, my view is that Democrats still have a slight edge in California and Washington State, but Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky and Pennsylvania have all been trending to the GOP, with West Virginia maybe a true toss-up.

"We're probably talking about an eight or nine seat gain for Republicans," Fortier said on Thursday, which is in line with many other political know-it-alls in DC, as there's still room for the GOP to win over the Senate, though many believe it is unlikely.

That kind of prediction reminds me of 1994, when both the Democrats and Republicans were talking about the same kind of gain by the GOP in the House, how it wouldn't be more than a 40 seat win for Republicans.

It didn't turn out that way.

We'll know in 11 days whether the political prognosticators had the guts to predict a blow out win, or whether they were right to call the bluff of the Republican wave in 2010.

President Obama will do events today for two Democratic Senators who are in tough races in Election 2010, as he visits both California and Nevada. The day begins with a rally on the campus of the University of Southern California for Sen. Barbara Boxer, and wraps up with a fundraiser ...