If you were too busy to check the news, the weekend didn't bring any significant changes in the Democratic race for the White House.
Only the hyper-involved will have any idea who Mark Penn is (Hillary Clinton strategist) and why they should worry about why he left the campaign (Google it.)
Heck, there are a lot of Washington insiders who believe that Mark Penn has been BAD for the Clinton campaign, so having him leave now might be a breath of fresh air.
As for superdelegates, if any chose sides this weekend, then I missed that news. We still have over 300 who are on the political sidelines, waiting to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
"The superdelegates are the only bloc of delegates where a candidate can build a large margin of support," says political analyst Anthony Corrado, who once tracked superdelegates for Walter Mondale in 1984.
"They're the biggest primary that's out there," Corrado added, and a primary that he says must be won by Clinton if she is to have any chance at winning this race.
"She's going to need a significant margin amongst this remaining group of superdelegates."
That has not been happening recently, as Obama has picked off a few in the past ten days, but really, most superdelegates seem to be sitting tight and waiting for the remaining primaries and caucuses to play out. (Find the Washington Post story from Sunday and read it.)
Evidently, one more will declare for Obama today, which makes the math even more difficult for Clinton.
As I see it, there are really only four possibilities left:
1) Obama wins in Pennslyvania - Game, Set, Match, Obama.
2) Obama wins both North Carolina and Indiana on May 6 - another Game, Set, Match, Obama scenario.
3) Hillary wins both primaries on May 6 - Katy Bar the Door if that occurs, because that really could lead to a Clinton win.
4) Obama and Hillary split the remaining contests with no big surprises through the final pair of primaries on June 3. Clinton wins PA, IN, WV, KY, PR and Obama wins NC, OR, MT and SD.
To me, the fourth option is the most likely. The superdelegates will then start coming out of the woodwork and I think things would be over within a week or so, with the edge going to Obama.
I do love all the Obama people who say things like, "You can't give the nomination to the person who won fewer votes in the primaries."
Hmmmm. Did they forget what happened in the 2000 Presidential election already? Getting the most votes in politics doesn't always mean that you are going to win.
I guess there is a fifth option, the proactive superdelegation scenario is what I would call it. In that, the supers start declaring for Obama at a rate that even if Hillary sweeps the rest of the primaries and caucuses, she still can't win. Unlikely, yes, but it is a possibility.
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