Last week, there were some poll numbers out that really had me scratching my head, as Hillary Clinton had jumped back into the national lead over Barack Obama.
Well, just like the weather in Ireland (wait a few hours and it changes, the saying goes) things have changed in some of the polls, delivering us some new and juicy items to chew on with just under four weeks until the Pennsylvania Primary.
Last week, it was Hillary Clinton who went ahead in a national Gallup tracking poll for the first time since just after Super Tuesday, as she led Barack Obama by 7 points.
Now that same poll has Obama with an insignificant lead of 1 point. In other words, the Democratic voter in 2008 is a bit fickle.
I'll let you argue it out as to whether Obama's speech on the "race" issue last week was the cause behind his bump in the polls.
That's because we need to digest some other interesting numbers from pollster Scott Rasmussen, who also conducts a number of national and statewide polls on the presidential race.
His latest numbers have McCain leading both Clinton and Obama - the margin is McCain +7 over Clinton and McCain +9 over Obama.
But for me, the more interesting numbers were deeper in the poll, about favorable and unfavorable feelings on the candidates from the voters.
I was very surprised to that Obama's favorable/unfavorable was now 46/52. In other words, more people don't like him than like him. I did not expect to see that.
For Hillary Clinton, that seems logical, right? She seems to inspire extreme views on both sides, you either love her or hate her. Clinton's numbers were 42/55.
John McCain meanwhile seems to be benefitting from the Clinton-Obama battle, as his favorable/unfavorable was 55/42.
In other polling news, I got some email last week about a Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina last week, which showed Obama only up by one point in the Tarheel State.
I wasn't exactly sold on those figures, so I was intrigued by the latest numbers - taken a week later by PPP - which show Obama leading in North Carolina by 21 points. I think I would split the difference and figure that Obama has a 10-12 point lead right now.
North Carolina votes on May 6, two weeks after Pennsylvania. Also voting that day is Indiana.
I really believe that if Obama were to win both of those states on May 6, a lot of people would really start the drumbeat to end the race.
On the other hand, if Hillary were to win both of those states, things could get real ugly.
There's still a lot of time for one or the other to stumble.
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