The start of the New Year has brought a flurry of retirements in the Congress, as the process of Legislative Natural Selection is again quietly bringing about change in the Congress, with even more likely before the voters start making their choices in party primaries in coming months.
At this point, seven U.S. Senators won't be back for the 114th Congress in January of 2015; four are Democrats and three are Republicans, so there is no edge for or against one party.
(For those counting at home, I am not including Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) in that figure; he will soon become Ambassador to China, and will be replaced by another Democrat before November.)
Over the period that includes Congressional elections in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012, there are an average of seven Senate retirements in each election cycle - so we are right on that number at this point.
In the House of Representatives, 16 lawmakers have decided not to run for re-election, while another 14 are running for other offices, meaning 30 members won't be back in January of 2015.
Of those 30 departing House members, 19 are Republicans and 11 are Democrats.
Like the Senate, that's also 7% of the House which is already moving on - but unlike the Senate, that number still has a good chance to grow in coming months, as more lawmakers decide whether they really want to run for re-election.
The filing deadlines for primaries are spread throughout the year, giving some veteran lawmakers even more time to decide whether they are in or out for 2014.
Over the last five elections in the U.S. House, retirements have averaged 19 per election year - we are at 16 right now - and just over 13 decide to run for other offices; that number is now at 14.
Here are the latest stats as of Monday:
As you can see, the average change for the five elections between 2004-2012 has been 63 seats in the House and 11 seats in the Senate.
The current running figures of 30 House and 7 Senate could still go up courtesy of this year's primaries and then the November elections.
For example, just this week in Oklahoma, the decision of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) to resign at the end of this year spurred Rep. James Lankford (R-OK) to run for Coburn's seat.
The state with the largest amount of change due to an open Senate seat is in Georgia, where three sitting GOP lawmakers are running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA).
Usually, the mid-term election in a President's second term does feature a large amount of change in the Congress.
For Democrats, 1934 under Roosevelt or 1950 under Truman are good examples, where they lost 72 and 29 seats in the House.
Republicans did not enjoy 2006, when they lost 31 seats - and control of the House - or 1986, when the GOP lost the Senate.
But these sixth-year elections don't always come out bad for the party in power of the White House.
The prime example was 1998, when only 6 House members and 3 Senators were booted out.
What will 2014 bring? Stay tuned. November is a long ways off.
About the Author
