The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results from this past week:
- It probably went unnoticed....(Smile), but yes, the computer pegged Mill Creek by a field goal over Colquitt County in the semifinal game. And yes, the computer went 7-7 in all semifinal games, matching the analytical power of a flipped coin. But just like the computer has some outstanding weeks, some weeks just go this way as well. So, in return, I've received my fair share of ribbing here and over at the Vent, which I gladly accept and in that spirit I am eating an old floppy disk I found (Ok, figuratively, not literally -- let's be reasonable here). I also tip my hat to those who, ahead of the game, are willing to join me in posting their predictions. It makes for interesting discussion in the "dead time" between Friday nights.
However, being a numbers guy, I've noticed a tendency for some to make broad statements such as "the computer's been inaccurate all year" or "he's been wrong about my team for the last three games" or "Maxwell has not picked a single game correctly since 1997" or whatever. I don't necessarily have a problem with these statements but often they are just flatly wrong. For anyone willing to research it, my picks have been publicly posted on AJC.com for at least the last three years and in the GHSF Daily since 2010. I've also on more than one occasion looked up the actual record myself when asked. So please, my only request is to just look up the actual record first before posting something.
And if your team was short changed by the computer, by all means make me the target of a nice roasting in good spirit . . . Which is even more fun with those who are willing to admit when the math got the better of them as well.
For the record, however, the computer's projection accuracy is 1,768-436 on the year (80.2%). This includes 136-42 (76.4%) in the playoffs. Again, anyone can look it up here on the AJC and verify.
- On a more serious note -- has anyone noticed the outstanding program Rush Propst has quietly built down at Colquitt County? After this past weekend's rout of Mill Creek, Colquitt County's rating is back above 100 for the first time since early this season. For those unfamiliar, a rating of 100 is designed to be a milestone in the program. It's the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. If Colquitt County wins this weekend against Roswell, they are certain to finish above 100 for the second year in a row, joining some of the elite teams in history. Below is a list of who's done it before, in chronological order. See if you can recognize any of these coaches and teams:
- Valdosta, 1956 (100.65) and 1957 (101.03), Wright Bazemore, 26-0, 2 state championships
- Valdosta, 1961 (104.91) and 1962 (106.95), Wright Bazemore, 24-0, 2 state and 1 national championship
- Valdosta, 1968 (109.63) and 1969 (100.09), Wright Bazemore, 25-0-1, 2 state and 1 national championship
- Thomasville, 1973 (103.70) and 1974 (100.08), Jim Hughes, 25-0-1, 2 state and 1 national championship
- Valdosta, 1982 (104.19), 1983 (101.46), and 1984 (113.12), Nick Hyder, 41-1, 2 state and 1 national championship
- Valdosta, 1991 (100.02) and 1992 (100.33), Nick Hyder, 25-1, 1 state and 1 national championship
- Parkview, 2001 (102.67) and 2002 (103.31), Cecil Flowe, 30-0, 2 state championships
- Lowndes, 2004 (107.63) and 2005 (100.78), Randy McPherson, 29-1, 2 state championships
- Although much of the attention is on Class AAAAAA, five of the six classification actually have new number one teams in the ratings after the semifinal games. In every class, the computer's number two team played the top rated team in the semifinals and the number two team prevailed with the exception of Calhoun losing to Blessed Trinity. This week, the top three classifications will again feature the top two rated teams.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,041 of 2,234 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.41%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.05 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.
Home Advantage: 1.66
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
About the Author