- The Extended Standings are shaping up nicely.  There have been 101 games between seeded teams in the same classification, of which 91 have been won by the higher rated teams.  Clearly games between higher ranked teams have a substantial impact on the subsequent seeding for the playoffs under the Extended Standings.

For comparison, to date less than a third of all GHSA games are accounted for in the region standings with nearly 60% of all teams having played no more than one region game.  In short, halfway through the season the Extended Standings already provide a reasonable identification of which teams are deserving of a playoff invitation while many teams haven't even started their region schedules.

- This week I've added the brackets that the Extended Standings would create if they were used along with the seeding method I outlined in Part VIII of the Getting it Right series.

Games I'm Tracking:

Still not too much I can explore this week with the Buford-Berkmar, Buford-McEachern, and Stockbridge-Eagle's Landing Christian Academy games that I haven't already covered in the past couple of weeks.

ELCA lost another close game to an undefeated team in a significantly higher classification, in effect impairing their Class A power rating again as compared to a victory over a 2-8 Class A team.  ELCA now has three losses against highly regarded teams in higher classifications that the Class A power rating penalize them for.

Let's briefly look at Grayson 70-6 victory over Berkmar and compare it with Grayson's 26-24 victory over Archer.  With the schedule played as is, Grayson's xWin% is 94.4%.  Removing the Berkmar game altogether drops their xWin% to just 94.3%, a difference of 0.1%, meaning the Extended Standings is largely indifferent to routing Berkmar, a team that has lost their first five games by an average of nearly eight touchdowns.

However, removing Grayson's field goal with 7 seconds left against Archer, resulting in a hypothetical 24-23 loss, drops their xWin% to 90.8%, good enough for fifth overall and what would be a #2 seed while Archer pops up to second overall for a #1 seed.  In short, the game really could have been for one of the top spots in all of Class AAAAAA if the Extended Standings were in use.

If you've found some interesting results by exploring the spreadsheet on your own, post them in the comments section for discussion. Or if you have any other games you’d like me to consider, by all means let me know!

Extended Standings

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Extended Standings use the results of the season so far to project each team’s record if it were to play every other team, creating a set of "extended" standings between all 417 GHSA teams.

Spreadsheet

The spreadsheet used to calculate this week's Extended Standings is attached here: 2015 Extended Standings - Week 6.  Games can be added, edited, or deleted to see the impact on the Extended Standings.

Brackets

Brackets are built using the Minimum Expected Great Circle Distance.

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Full Extended Standings

Each team is shown below with it's overall rank, classification rank, seed, classification, actual record, adjusted winning percentage (adjW%), rating, extended wins and losses (xWin and xLoss), and extended winning percentage (xWin%).

Sum of the negative log-likelihood: 691.871921021

Solution converged in 1,269 iterations