The 2013 Braves: Many wins but many whiffs

Lake Buena Vista, Fla. – This might sound like a bad case of cognitive dissonance caused by too many days in the 87-degree heat, but here goes:

I believe the 2013 Atlanta Braves will win at least 95 games.

I also believe they’ll strike out more than any Braves team ever.

The latter needn’t disqualify the former. How do we know this? From recent history. The 2012 Oakland A’s led the majors with 1,387 strikeouts; they also won 94 games. The 2012 Washington Nationals were fourth-worst in baseball with 1,325 strikeouts; they also had the best record in the sport.

Oh, yes. There’s also this: The 2012 Braves struck out 1,289 times, most in team annals; they also won 94 games.

By importing B.J. Upton (169 strikeouts last season), Justin Upton (121) and Chris Johnson (132 strikeouts in 136 games), the 2013 club appears bound for whiff infamy. Chipper Jones and Martin Prado never struck out even 100 times in a season. (Although Michael Bourn, also gone, struck out 155 times in 155 games last year.)

Let’s stipulate that the strikeout is an eyesore: It looks bad and accomplishes nothing. Fans hate strikeouts. Within the industry, however, the rising K rate has gained grudging acceptance as the price of doing business.

Said Fredi Gonzalez: “I grew up and you grew up thinking, ‘Put the ball in play; something good might happen.’ Look at Hank’s numbers – he struck out 60 or 70 times in a season.” (Sure enough, Henry Aaron averaged 60 strikeouts over 23 big-league years.)

That, however, was before even middle infielders were expected to hit for power; before ESPN was around to air nightly highlights that include nothing but home runs, and before the advent of sabermetrics, which suggest that a strikeout isn’t the worst possible outcome.

Gonzalez again: “There are some people who think an out’s an out. I believe that a little bit, but I also believe in productive outs. The saber people will say a strikeout’s not that bad because you don’t hit into a double play.”

He spoke the morning after the Braves’ exhibition opener, in which Gonzalez twice started a runner from first base and twice saw a Brave strike out into a double play. Reminded of this, the manager shrugged.

“It’s just the modern baseball player,” he said. “We can talk about it and Walk (hitting coach Greg Walker) can preach, but you’re not going to change them. A guy’s not going to go from 180 strikeouts to 100.”

Of the nine men who figure to comprise the Braves’ everyday eight, seven have had 100-plus strikeout seasons, and Juan Francisco, who hasn’t played very much, has that capability. This season figures to yield a slew of big innings rendered small by whiffing, which isn’t to say the Braves won’t score.

The counterpoint to the K is the home run. When you swing so hard, you’ll miss often. But when you connect, you’ll hit the ball a long way. The 2012 Nats were third in the National League in strikeouts, second in homers.

Gonzalez: “On the back of every baseball card, there’s a negative statistic. You look at the best player in baseball, and there’s a column that’s not going to be good. It’s like good accountants: They can make the numbers say what they want them to say. Say we lead the league in punchouts but we’re the best at not hitting into double plays: What’s that say?”

He reached into an accordion file to extract a document compiled by John Coppolella, the Braves’ director of professional scouting. These showed the 2012 team’s rankings in various metrics, some basic, some more advanced.

Said Gonzalez, running down the list: “Last year we were fourth in the National League in pitching, first in defense, second in total baserunning and bottom third in offense – and we won 94 games.”

As noted, the 2012 Braves didn't hit much: They finished 11th in batting average. But their on-base percentage of .320 was actually fairly decent for a team that hit only .247. Why? Because they led the league in walks. Yes, they swung and missed, but they didn't swing at absolutely everything.

This team figures to swing more, miss more, walk less – and hit many more homers. There will be times when it’s maddening to watch; there will be other times when its power takes your breath.

An example came in Monday’s exhibition. In the same inning, Jason Heyward homered to right-center, B.J. Upton doubled to left-center and Justin Upton hit a 500-foot home run that cleared the trees beyond the left-field fence and rolled down a hill, coming to rest not 30 feet from this correspondent’s rental car.

It must be noted that both Uptons have been part of historic seasons. The 2012 Diamondbacks hold the major-league record for strikeouts with 1,529, and 152 of those were Justin’s. The 2007 Rays hold the American League record with 1,324, with 154 being B.J.’s.

Anyone looking for a team steeped in the art of small ball should keep searching. That’s not how these Braves were built, and it’s not how they’ll be.