Back on Oct. 22, after the Falcons were blasted by the Ravens and before they collapsed in London, I declared they were not going to make the playoffs.
I still don't think the Falcons will qualify for the postseason but the sorry state of the NFC South means they have a realistic shot to do so. The Falcons have a 33.8 percent chance to win the division, according to the Football Outsiders playoff odds, second behind the Saints (59.2 percent).
Look at the respective schedules for the three NFC South teams with a shot to win it and you can understand why the Saints are favored to win the division even though they are tied with the Falcons at 4-6 and already lost to them. On paper, at least, the Falcons face the toughest road to the South title.
(See this chart for comparisons among South teams.)
The Falcons’ six remaining opponents have the highest combined winning percentage (.592) among NFC South opponents. The teams the Falcons will face have the highest average ranking for yards per play (13.7) among the division, are tied for the highest average ranking for yards per play allowed (20.8) and have the best average DVOA ranking (15.2).
That last number is key. The Football Outsiders proprietary DVOA system "breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average." This is the similar to the system the Falcons and many NFL teams use to measure efficiency because instead of focusing on total yards or even yards per play it emphasizes gaining (or not allowing) the most important yards. Football Outsiders adds to that by adjusting for opponent strength.
According to the latest DVOA rankings, the Saints are significantly more efficient than the Falcons on offense (ranked No. 5 vs. No.11), slightly more efficient on defense (No. 30 vs. No. 32) and not as efficient on special teams (No.14 vs. No. 8). The Saints' remaining opponents are significantly less efficient (average DVOA ranking of 19.5) than the Falcons' remaining opponents (15.2).
The Saints will face four teams with relatively poor DVOA rankings--the Panthers (29), Bears (23), Falcons (20) and Buccaneers (32)—and two very efficient teams in the Packers (2) and Steelers (10). The Falcons still have to play the Packers and Steelers and also must face the Cardinals (15), Saints (16) and Browns (19) with just one game left against a clearly bad team, the Panthers.
These numbers obviously don’t take into account such factors as injuries, luck and the possibility of improvement (or regression) over the final six games. But they do suggest that the Falcons will have to play better if they want to win the South.
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