The numbers were crunched. The intangibles were considered. The weather forecast was factored in. I had my Masters pick pretty much figured out.
Then Tiger Woods showed up at Augusta and declared himself fit to compete.
Logically, Woods shouldn’t factor much into my equation for picking the winner. He hasn’t played a tournament since the Masters in November 2020. Woods suffered serious injuries in a one-car accident two months later. It’s normally not a good idea to back the golfer who said that just walking the hilly course at Augusta National Golf Club will be a challenge.
Thing is, Woods is no ordinary golfer. He’s not the greatest champion ever to walk Augusta. That’s still Jack Nicklaus, winner of six green jackets and 18 majors to Tiger’s five and 15. Woods isn’t even the first great golfer to come back from injuries sustained in a vehicle crash. Ben Hogan won six majors after his 1949 accident, though he was nine years younger than Woods was when Tiger was in his crash.
But Nicklaus himself said something that keeps nagging at me each time I’m ready to dismiss Tiger’s chances. After Woods said he planned to play, The Golden Bear released a statement of support that read, in part: “Tiger wouldn’t tee it up if he didn’t think he could compete and win.”
Woods always has said that. He was saying it when he didn’t win for years after health problems and personal turmoil derailed his career. Back then, it was easy to dismiss it as wishful thinking by Woods. He was a proud champion unwilling to accept that he could no longer be great.
That changed when Woods won the 2019 Masters. He was 43, about 10 years older than the average Masters champion. Chronic back problems are supposed to be the end for pro golfers. Woods overcame his bad back and won one major, finished second at another (2018 PGA championship) and won two other official events.
Now Woods is back at Augusta, 15 months after shattering his right leg in the accident. When word leaked that Woods might play, bookmakers gave him 50-1 odds to win the Masters. That number was holding steady Tuesday. According to BetMGM, Woods was getting twice the number of bets and money wagered on him than any other golfer.
If you think I’m trying to talk myself into picking Woods, you are correct. I love underdogs in general. This particular ‘dog is the fun, exciting choice. I’d look smart for correctly picking Woods to win. I’d feel dumb if he’s never in contention while better choices are at the top of the leaderboard. I’d love it if Tiger wins again, but I’m not picking him to do it.
That’s how I approached my prediction for the 2019 Masters. I wanted Woods win because it would be a great story. He did win, at 16-1, and it was a great story. Unfortunately, Rickie Fowler was my choice. He was close to the lead on Sunday, but was among the golfers who faded as Woods charged.
The 2020 Masters was weird because the pandemic forced the tournament to move to November with no spectators (or blooming azaleas). The odd circumstances made me consider doing what I always want to do and take a big underdog. I resisted that urge and went with a safe choice, Dustin Johnson. He won at 9-1 odds.
The 2021 Masters was back to its traditional place on the calendar with a limited number of fans. I picked Justin Thomas to win. He got into contention by going birdie-birdie-birdie around Amen Corner on Saturday. Thomas collapsed in the final round with a triple-bogey at No. 13 after a weather delay.
I strongly considered picking Thomas (13-1) again. He checks all my boxes: significant experience at Augusta, not too old, good short game. But Johnson, the 2017 PGA Championship winner, admits that he’s underachieved at majors. I’ll pass.
Instead, I’m backing Brooks Koepka (19-1). He’s missed four cuts this year, but that doesn’t bother me. Koepka has followed the Tiger tradition of figuring how to peak for the majors. Koepka has won four of them and seemingly is always in contention.
Koepka has five top-five finishes in his past 12 majors played. He missed the cut at last year’s Masters, but that’s when he was struggling with injuries. Kopeka still finished second, fourth and sixth at the other majors. As I said, the guy usually plays well at the biggest tournaments.
Koepka says he’s healthy now. He missed the cut at The Players Championship last month with a second-round 81. Koepka bounced back by finishing tied for 12th at the Valspar Championship and tied for fifth at WGC Match Play. He’s ready to win his fifth major and first green jacket.
If I’m wrong, then I hope it’s because Woods won his sixth.
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