There are times when winning as many games as you lose can feel like a win. Week 1 was not such a moment for Weekend Predictions. I avoided a losing record, but I still felt like a loser.
I went against my instincts and picked a big favorite coming off a deflating loss (Florida State), and I trusted LSU coach Brian Kelly. I somehow believed a coach derisively known as “Sun Belt Billy” by many Florida fans would best Miami at The Swamp. I’ve been burned many times before picking big underdogs at Alabama, yet I touched the stove again expecting a different result just because Nick Saban is retired.
Watching those results play out was like taking my medicine. Only I didn’t feel any better afterward.
No pick this week for Georgia versus Tennessee Tech of the FCS because there is no consensus point spread. That’s a good thing for me. I’d surely take the huge number of points that would be offered for backing the visiting Golden Eagles and regret that decision by the second quarter.
Steelers (+3) at Falcons
There’s a chance that Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator, ex-Falcons coach Arthur Smith, will stick it to his old team. Smith’s downfall here was believing he could make Desmond Ridder a good starting quarterback. Now Smith’s QB is Russell Wilson. Pittsburgh’s best skill player is ex-Georgia star George Pickens. He’s been good in the NFL despite playing with lesser quarterbacks than the late-career version of Wilson.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins hasn’t played a game, official or exhibition, in nearly a year. The Steelers will pressure Cousins with a good defensive front. It could be a long day for him if he’s rusty and can’t take advantage of their shaky secondary. I think Cousins will make enough plays to win, but the Steelers will cover the spread.
No. 23 Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse
The Yellow Jackets are in a similar position to the Falcons. They may not be great, but they don’t need to be to finish ahead of their peers. Tech is among a group of four ACC teams ranked Nos. 22-25. Miami is No. 12, but the Hurricanes’ history of underachieving is nearly as long as their glory days. Also, Tech gets Miami at home in November.
I correctly predicted the Jackets would kick their habit of following a big win with a bad performance. They upset Florida State in Ireland then handled Georgia State. Now Tech is a road favorite for only the third time since coach Paul Johnson hung up his whistle. The Jackets were favored by a touchdown at Syracuse in 2020 and lost 37-20 while committing five turnovers. Things will go much better in the rematch for the Jackets, who will cover.
Other college games of interest
No. 3 Texas (-7½) at No. 10 Michigan
Michigan is No. 1 all-time for college football victories (1,004), and Texas is tied for No. 4 (948). Yet this will be only the second meeting between the teams and the first one that’s scheduled (Texas beat Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl). The Longhorns just joined the SEC and already they are tasked with defending the league’s honor against a Big Ten foe. Kelly couldn’t do it against USC, but Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns will win and cover at The Big House.
No. 14 Tennessee (-7½) vs. No. 24 N.C. State (Charlotte)
N.C. State struggled to put away Western Carolina of the FCS on Saturday. “At the end of the day, you never apologize for winning a football game,” coach Dave Doeren told reporters. You do in the SEC, where winning with style just means more. Coach Josh Huepel’s Volunteers haven’t fared well in big SEC games (save for the 2022 win over Alabama) but they handle their business against good teams from other leagues. Tennessee is the pick.
Arkansas (+8) at No. 16 Oklahoma
Texas A&M had the SEC’s No. 5 scoring offense during Bobby Petrino’s one season calling the plays. Petrino was out when Jimbo Fisher was fired and landed at Arkansas, where he was head coach from 2008-11. “One of my criteria that I wanted was a man that loved the University of Arkansas,” coach Sam Pittman told reporters at the time of the hire. Petrino showed that affection when he hired his mistress to work for him, a scandal that was revealed by the infamous motorcycle crash. I’m taking the Hogs and the points because I don’t trust Oklahoma State’s defense.
Appalachian State (+17½) at No. 25 Clemson
At this point Clemson fans might be hoping Dabo Swinney sticks to his vow to quit if players ever get paid salaries, which might be coming next season. There’s no shame in Swinney losing to Georgia. Saban is the only coach to beat the Bulldogs since the start of the 2021 season. The shame for Clemson was the no-show in the second half and another offensive flameout with a quarterback that Swinney insists is good. I like App State with the points.
Cal (+13) at Auburn
Auburn piled up 451 yards passing against Alabama A&M in the opener. “It should have been more, (but) we had some drops and two bad decisions by the quarterbacks,” coach Hugh Freeze told reporters. See what I mean, Doeren? The Bears won three consecutive games versus SEC foes (Tennessee, Ole Miss twice) before losing at home to Auburn last season. I’m picking the Tigers to cover, even though I still have memories of New Mexico State blowing them out at home in November.
Other NFL games of interest
Panthers (+4) at Saints
I was surprised to see the Saints are getting the third-longest odds to win the NFC South behind the Falcons and Bucs. Sure, they have the oldest roster in the NFL, but the defense was good last season (unlike the Falcons), the offense got better during the season (ditto) and the quarterback is Derek Carr (he’s no Baker Mayfield). Everyone seems to agree the Panthers are terrible, though it’s too early to write off second-year QB Bryce Young. I’m taking Carolina and the points.
Commanders (+3½) at Buccaneers
Commanders coach Dan Quinn is in his first top job since the good thing he had going with the Falcons went bad. His offensive play-caller is Kliff Kingsbury. He couldn’t do much with Kyler Murray in Arizona, but now Kingsbury gets a chance to not develop another top QB prospect, Jayden Daniels. Quinn knows how to coach defense, and the Commanders loaded up on defensive talent in the draft after taking Daniels No. 2 overall. I like the Commanders to cover.
Cowboys (+2½) at Browns
Quarterback Deshaun Watson has started only 12 games for the Browns over two seasons because of a league suspension and injuries. Word out of preseason camp was that Watson didn’t look the same after shoulder surgery in November, though he told reporters there’s “no doubt” he’s still an elite QB. This is the guy Arthur Blank wanted before the Browns acquired Watson for a boatload of draft picks and signed him to a terrible contract, saving the Falcons from themselves. Cowboys are the pick.
Last week: 4-4. Season: 4-4.
